China overtakes US in nuclear submarine launch pace New IISS report warns

China has significantly accelerated construction of nuclear-powered submarines over the past five years, launching more vessels than the United States and narrowing a long-standing US advantage at sea, according to a new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), cited by CNN.

Based on satellite imagery of shipyards, the study found that between 2021 and 2025, China launched 10 nuclear submarines with a combined displacement of about 79,000 tons, compared with seven US submarines totalling 55,500 tons. This marks a sharp reversal from 2016–2020, when US production significantly outpaced China’s. The figures refer to submarines launched rather than fully operational vessels, and the United States still maintains a large overall fleet advantage.

As of early 2025, China operated 12 nuclear-powered submarines — six ballistic-missile boats and six attack or guided-missile submarines — alongside a large conventional fleet of 46 diesel-electric submarines. By comparison, the United States had 65 submarines in total, including 14 ballistic-missile vessels, and does not operate conventionally powered submarines.

The expansion has been supported by major upgrades to the Huludao shipyard run by Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry in northern China. The report highlights the launch of two Type 094 ballistic-missile submarines capable of carrying nuclear weapons, strengthening China’s nuclear triad alongside land-based missiles and strategic bombers. A more advanced Type-096 class is expected to enter production later this decade, potentially entering service in the late 2020s or early 2030s.

China has also launched at least six guided-missile submarines equipped with vertical launch systems that could deploy new high-speed anti-ship missiles. Despite the rapid buildup, analysts assess that Chinese submarines still lag behind US and European designs in stealth and overall quality, leaving Washington with a technological edge.

At the same time, US naval construction faces mounting challenges. Congressional assessments show American shipyards producing only about 1.1 to 1.2 Virginia-class attack submarines annually since 2022 — below the target of two per year — while the Columbia-class ballistic-missile submarine program is running at least a year behind schedule, with the lead vessel now expected in 2028.

US officials warn that declining production and the planned retirement of older Los Angeles-class submarines could reduce the US attack-sub fleet to about 47 boats by 2030 before numbers recover later in the decade. Analysts caution that this temporary shortfall, combined with China’s expanding fleet, could increase operational strain on US forces and weaken conventional deterrence during the transition period.

By Tamilla Hasanova