Chinese airlines increase Europe capacity as rivals struggle with re-routes

Chinese airlines are ramping up flights to Europe over the next six months, capitalizing on disruptions caused by the ongoing US-Israeli war against Iran and strikes on Lebanon, as well as broader geopolitical tensions affecting global aviation routes.

Since hostilities intensified around the Persian Gulf, airlines operating between Europe and Asia have been forced to reroute flights through increasingly narrow corridors. One of the most critical alternatives to emerge was the Caucasus corridor north of Iran — spanning Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan — which has absorbed a growing share of diverted traffic linking the two regions.

However, Middle East disruptions are only part of the story. Chinese carriers retain a structural advantage on Europe–Asia routes, as they are still able to operate closer to great-circle paths over Russia, as Chinese media outlets highlight, while most European airlines are forced to take longer southern detours with both Ukrainian and Russian airspaces unavailable to them.

These route changes come at a significant cost. Analysts estimate that detours can add between $8,000 and $20,000 per hour in fuel expenses alone. When factoring in additional operational costs, airlines face increases of $15,000 to $30,000 per flight, all while oil prices remain elevated.

Market dynamics are already reflecting this imbalance. A review of British Airways offerings for June shows that direct flights to Beijing are only available via a codeshare with China Southern Airlines. Meanwhile, data from Skyscanner indicates that a Frankfurt–Shanghai flight on Air China costs around €870 ($1,015), compared with €1,008 on Lufthansa.

Chinese carriers are significantly expanding capacity. According to OAG, a global air travel data provider, airlines from China are scheduled to add approximately 2,350 flights to Western Europe during the March–October summer season compared to the same period last year.

The expansion is led by Air China with 969 additional flights, followed by China Eastern Airlines with 697 and China Southern Airlines with 410.

At the same time, Chinese airlines are opening new direct connections to key European cities. New routes now link Beijing Daxing International Airport with destinations such as Frankfurt, Helsinki, and Milan, with more than 100 flights scheduled on these routes.

Beijing’s policy decisions are also supporting this expansion. The government has widened visa-free access for travellers from several European countries this year, further boosting demand and allowing Chinese carriers to strengthen their position in the Europe–Asia market.

By Nazrin Sadigova