Closure of Strait of Hormuz could trigger oil price surge

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating tensions in the Red Sea region would require a complete restructuring of global supply chains, making it impossible to fully maintain exports from the region.

A prolonged disruption of oil shipments from the Persian Gulf could push Brent crude prices to $140–$200 per barrel, according to an analytical review titled “Iran Crisis: Risks for the Oil Market and Threat of Escalation” prepared by experts at the Roscongress Foundation, as reported by TASS.

Around 20 million barrels of oil per day (about 20% of global consumption) pass through the Strait of Hormuz, along with roughly 22% of global LNG transit, mostly from Qatar. Saudi Arabia accounts for about 40% of this transit (5.5 million barrels per day), followed by Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iran. Over 80% of these flows are destined for Asia.