Türkiye moves into focus of Europe’s energy security rethink

Global energy markets have been significantly disrupted by the attacks carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran late last month, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on regional energy infrastructure. Amid this instability, the European Union’s dependence on natural gas has once again come into sharp focus, with Türkiye’s role in the bloc’s energy map likely to be reconsidered.

Natural gas prices across European Union countries surged by nearly 100% over the course of the month, with an article by Anadolu Agency highlighting how Europe’s reliance on Gulf suppliers—reaching as high as 40% in some countries—has become a renewed point of debate.

Policymakers have been discussing immediate measures to address supply shortfalls and contain rising energy costs, which threaten the broader regional economy.

Several countries have also begun reconsidering plans to phase out nuclear power plants, viewing them as a stable baseline energy source in times of crisis.

Between February 28 and March 26, gas prices for April futures contracts in the Netherlands rose by 89.4%, climbing from €31.5 per megawatt-hour to about €54.5. These figures are based on the TTF virtual trading hub, Europe’s most liquid natural gas benchmark.

Price increases were widespread: 81.8% in France, 78.9% in Spain, 77.4% in Belgium, 75.6% in the United Kingdom, 74.7% in the Netherlands, 74.1% in Germany, 71.2% in Czechia, 69.7% in Austria, 69% in Denmark, 48.6% in Lithuania, 43.6% in Finland, and 41.55% in Latvia and Estonia, according to the European Energy Exchange’s spot price index.

Speaking to Anadoly Agency, Andres Cala, an analyst at data provider Montel, noted that unlike much of Western Europe, Mediterranean as well as parts of southern and central Europe face a higher risk of actual supply disruptions amid the Middle East crisis, which is already straining an energy system with limited resilience.

While countries like Italy, France, and Spain are expected to offset shortages by purchasing more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the spot market, he noted that securing sufficient supply will be more difficult for Eastern European countries. Increased global competition for LNG—including from other EU members—combined with limits on Russian imports complicates the situation.

“Countries in central Europe already began restricting oil products to some consumers, and this is likely to broaden amid the ongoing shut-in of the Druzhba oil pipeline without any flexibility to allow more Russian supplies,” he said. 

“There are no reported gas shortages, but also because the supply crunch from the Strait of Hormuz is only starting to be felt only now as the last cargoes that were able to exit the chokepoint arrive at destination.”

Given the uncertainty surrounding statements from both Washington and Tehran, there remains a big risk that the conflict could continue for weeks, exposing the region to severe supply tightness with few short-term alternatives, the analyst added.

Regional cooperation with Türkiye

Cala argued that, under current conditions, the EU may need to rely more heavily on Türkiye and its ambitions to become an energy hub—effectively opening a “back door” into Europe.

Although acknowledging that Türkiye’s hub strategy will take years to fully develop, he stressed that Europe should act now, as Ankara is under pressure to advance its energy role for both economic and geopolitical reasons.

“Europe, in turn, must decide whether it wants influence over what could yet become a structural shift in regional energy flows,” said Cala.

He emphasized that Türkiye already plays a subtle but important role in Europe’s energy system: it absorbs volumes rejected by Europe from Russia and Iran, facilitates the transit of Azerbaijani gas via the Southern Gas Corridor, and re-exports limited domestic production along with global LNG.

For Europe, deeper diversification via Türkiye could provide leverage—especially against costly LNG imports—while strengthening Mediterranean supply security and expanding a potentially valuable energy corridor.

Cala concluded that Europe’s long-term energy security could be reinforced by positioning Türkiye as a southeastern buffer against instability stemming from both Russia and the Middle East, while also broadening its strategic options in the Mediterranean region.

By Nazrin Sadigova