Europe faces strategic isolation in defending Ukraine amid waning US support

Following a summer marked by intense geopolitical summitry, Europe is coming to terms with a stark reality: it must largely fend for itself in defending Ukraine’s sovereignty—and its own security—against Russian aggression, with limited support from the United States.

An article by The Guardian argues that the sense of strategic isolation comes after the EU accepted an uneven trade deal imposed by President Donald Trump and pledged substantial investments in the US, while NATO members vowed to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP—all efforts aimed at securing continued American engagement in European security.

Despite this, European leaders showed a rare display of unity by accompanying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the White House last week. They collectively rejected Vladimir Putin’s demands for territorial concessions to end the war—positions Trump appeared poised to support. The summit also yielded a vague US pledge to back a European-led security force for Ukraine, contingent on a ceasefire.

However, Trump reiterated his opposition to Ukraine’s NATO membership and dismissed calls for an immediate ceasefire without reciprocal Russian concessions. He allowed deadlines for tougher sanctions against Moscow to lapse and offered no assurances that Europe would have a seat in future peace talks. His Treasury Secretary further announced a 10% surcharge on all European purchases of American weapons for Ukraine—a de facto “war tax” on allies.

The White House clarified that any US support for the UK- and France-led reassurance force would exclude “boots on the ground,” with limited assistance likely. Furthermore, intelligence sharing has reportedly been curtailed, even among close Five Eyes allies, undermining European military planning.

Europe’s leadership now confronts internal political hurdles. Italy’s deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini criticized Emmanuel Macron’s proposal for European troops in Ukraine, while Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces domestic opposition to contributing forces. Poland, a key regional player, has declined participation, citing its own border security needs. Türkiye’s involvement remains uncertain, with Ankara seeking political concessions in exchange.

These developments raise fundamental doubts about the viability of a European-led security guarantee for Ukraine. “The Europeans’ ability to secure any ceasefire seems unlikely to be put to the test,” the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen remarked, urging that Ukraine itself “must become a steel porcupine, indigestible for potential invaders.”

With Putin showing no inclination toward peace and US support unpredictable, Europe’s capacity to deter Russia without reliable American backing remains in serious question.

By Vafa Guliyeva