Ex-Armenian FM cautions on geopolitical risks amid Armenia's westward tilt

Former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian expressed concerns about Armenia's geopolitical positioning and relations with Russia, highlighting the potential consequences of shifting towards Europe while remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

"Orientation towards Europe is a bluff, our people are being deceived again. No one is waiting for us in the EU, maybe in 20-30 years it will happen, but those who talk about it today will simply not see it," he told journalists, as per Caliber.Az.

Oskanian's remarks underscored his scepticism about Armenia's prospects in European integration amidst ongoing Armenian-Russian relations.

"We are just lucky that Russia has been very patient with these authorities so far. You're part of the EAEU and you benefit from it to some extent. But now you are moving towards Europe, as you claim. And now, the leading country of the EAEU - Russia - sees that Armenia is actively going to Europe, but at the same time it wants to stay here. That is, in 10-20 years, when the moment comes and it joins the EU, it will leave us, betray us, but it will enjoy our benefits all these 20 years. In the end, Russia can also take retaliatory steps. They are doing it for the Armenian people, they don't want to cause any harm, otherwise the price of gas today can increase 4 times, they can introduce taxes, they can say: decide, either stay or leave. They don't understand this. Open confrontation with Russia cannot have good consequences for Armenia," he said.

He criticized Armenia's perceived loss of regional influence amidst Azerbaijan's balanced diplomacy and Georgia's strategic alignments.

"Russia can replace Armenia with Azerbaijan, forget about us altogether and solve its strategic problems through Baku. We have already lost the North-South road. Recently I watched three different programmes, Armenia is not on any map. This road goes from India, from Bandar Abbas to Russia and Europe through Azerbaijan, and our people are still talking about some 'Crossroads of Peace'," Oskanian noted.

He underscored the risks of Armenia's policy choices leading to isolation and emphasized the shifting dynamics in the Caucasus region, with implications for Armenia's future relationships and strategic positioning.

"We have already lost this road, the East-West road does not exist for us yet, Georgia is pursuing a much more complementary policy. Azerbaijan has always been able to maintain balance, now it can further deepen its relations with Russia in spite of us and replace us, Georgia will bring its relations with Russia to a normal state, and we will be in complete isolation. This is what the policy of these authorities is leading to, and this threat is in front of us. Serious changes are taking place in the region, there may be a sharp change of roles. Under the current policy of Azerbaijan and Georgia, even if we go 100% towards the West, it will lose its value, because we will fall under the influence of Turkey, it will become indirect. And when Russia finds a replacement for us in the region, it may ignore us so much that we will not be able to recover from it," Oskanian emphasised.