Ex-vice US president holds double-digit lead in early Democratic primary poll

Former US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding double-digit lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom in a new national survey of potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders, reinforcing her early status as the party's front-runner.

A Quantus Insights poll conducted on July 3, 6 and 7 found Harris, who competed against US President Donald Trump in the 2025 presidential elections, to be leading the Democratic field with 35.3 percent support among likely voters. Newsom placed second with 17.7 percent, leaving Harris ahead by 17.6 percentage points, as American media report.

Although no candidate has formally announced a 2028 presidential campaign, the findings add to a growing body of polling suggesting Harris begins the next Democratic nomination contest with a significant advantage.

As a Newsweek article points out, such early presidential polling is not necessarily predictive of the eventual nominee, as it often reflects name recognition, recent political prominence and existing party support rather than settled voter preferences. However, sustained leads can shape perceptions of candidate viability, influencing donors, endorsements and media attention long before voting begins.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg ranked third in the survey with 12.9 percent support, followed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11.1 percent. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who was widely considered a potential running mate for Harris during the 2024 presidential election, received 7.1 percent.

The survey was conducted among 1,140 respondents and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

Beyond Harris, the Democratic field remains fragmented. Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez together account for roughly one-quarter of support, while the remaining potential candidates register in the single digits.

Republicans consolidate around one figure

The same Quantus Insights poll suggests the Republican field is currently more unified, with Vice President JD Vance emerging as the clear early favourite for the party's 2028 nomination.

Vance led the Republican field with 42.2 percent support, well ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio on 25.9 percent. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis followed with 8.7 percent, while other prospective candidates also trailed in single digits.

The results point to differing dynamics within the two major parties. Democrats have a clear leader but a relatively divided field beneath Harris, while Republicans appear more consolidated around Vance at this early stage.

With more than two years until the first presidential primary contests and no official candidates yet in the race, the political landscape remains highly fluid. Nevertheless, experts note that the latest polling provides an early indication of how voters currently view the leading figures who could shape the 2028 presidential election.

By Nazrin Sadigova