Farmers' riots - sign of EU's existential crisis Daily Sabah article

Turkish Daily Sabah newspaper carries an article by Efe Can Gurcan about the protests of farmers in Europe, Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Europe is currently witnessing a significant wave of farmers' protests spanning several countries, including France, Germany, Poland, Romania, Spain, Belgium, Czechia, Latvia and Italy. While these protests ostensibly arise as a backlash against the European Union's Green Deal, a policy initiative aimed at fostering environmental sustainability, a closer inspection reveals a more complex picture. These demonstrations are not merely reactions to environmental policy but are indicative of a multitude of intertwined factors affecting Europe.

Europe's climate crisis is a significant concern in this context. The 2003 heat wave led to 70,000 deaths and economic losses of 15 billion euros ($16.2 billion) in Southern Europe. A similar crisis in 2018 affected Northern and Central Europe, besides causing significant agricultural damage and leading to the worst drought. Since 2018, Europe has experienced ongoing droughts, peaking in 2022, which severely impacted crop yields and exacerbated the energy crisis.

Energy crisis and Ukraine's role

Other key issues include the energy crisis and the Ukraine conflict. In 2021, EU energy prices surged due to increased demand after the COVID-19 pandemic and higher gas consumption in Asia. The crisis intensified in 2022 with the Ukraine conflict, leading to record-high energy prices as Russia cut gas supplies to the EU, affecting electricity costs linked to fossil fuels. This energy crisis, alongside climate change, has contributed to soaring food inflation, significantly reducing household purchasing power, with EU inflation rates jumping from 0.2 per cent in November 2020 to 11.5 per cent in October 2022.

In 2022, the EU removed duties to aid Ukraine. Ukraine has since become a key EU supplier that provides substantial amounts of cereals, sunflower oil and poultry. However, this surge of lower-priced Ukrainian goods has concerned farmers in Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, who feel their market shares are threatened by Ukraine's competitive prices.

Trans-Atlantic tensions

The recent EU farmers' protests, highlighting a deepening agricultural crisis and straining Western alliance cohesion amid the Ukraine crisis, drew critical attention from the United States. The US criticised the EU's "farm to fork" strategy as "protectionist," with a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) study warning of possible food price increases between 20 per cent and 53 per cent alongside a potential gross domestic product (GDP) decline.

On October 7, US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue suggested the possibility of a World Trade Organisation (WTO) complaint against the EU's policy, citing major concerns about disruptions to trans-Atlantic trade.

Farmers' unrest

A final issue of great concern is the rise of Europe's far-right. Protests against nitrogen emission cuts in the Netherlands are likely to have contributed to Geert Wilders' electoral win and the Dutch Farmer-Citizen movement's success in provincial elections. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) used farmers' protests to challenge the government, rising in polls and stirring controversy on social media.

The "Made in Europe" food campaign gained traction in Germany and Austria amid discussions on EU agricultural policy. In France, National Rally's Jordan Bardella accused President Emmanuel Macron of damaging agriculture, while protestors criticized EU regulations for burdening small farmers. Marion Marechal pointed to the European Green Deal as a focal point of farmer dissatisfaction.

Recent polls suggest the European Parliament election results in June 2024 might hinder climate initiatives, with a potential shift toward right-wing sentiment challenging the enactment of ambitious climate policies. The election will determine the composition of the EU Parliament. Forecasts indicate a rise in populist, right-wing parties and a decline in center-left and green parties, with the former potentially forming a coalition against climate action.

A test for European unity?

Despite the EU's attempts to placate farmers with concessions, these developments underscore a geopolitical turmoil that extends far beyond the realms of agriculture, climate change and energy crisis. Firstly, Brexit, coupled with the ascent of right-wing populism and extremism fueled by xenophobia and Euroskepticism, struck a significant blow to the project of European integration. Therefore, a potential consequence of the farmers' protests could be an intensification of the EU's existential crisis, highlighting deepening divisions within the union.

Secondly, the protests' demands for protectionism against Ukraine and the EU's subsequent concessions at the expense of Ukrainian agricultural exports have significantly eroded the EU's professed solidarity with Ukraine, challenging the union's coherence and credibility on the international stage.

Finally, the US criticism of the European Green Deal and protectionism, along with the perceived abandonment of Ukraine, has, to a certain extent, undermined the credibility and unity of the trans-Atlantic alliance as a whole.