Fitch reveals Azerbaijan's GDP growth outlook for 2022

The Fitch Ratings international rating agency predicts Azerbaijan's GDP growth at 3.6% in 2022, and 2% in 2023.

Fitch forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 11.7%, according to Interfax-Azerbaijan.

“Food prices, which rose by 16.8% in March compared to the same period last year, will depend on reduced imports from Ukraine and Russia, especially the import of wheat. The decline in world commodity prices, the disappearance of disruptions in supply chains will create conditions for lowering inflation in Azerbaijan in 2023 to 7.2%,” the agency said.

According to the agency, high oil prices create preconditions for a consolidated budget surplus. “The surplus will rise to 10.9% of GDP in 2022 on the back of further strong growth in energy export revenues and decline to 5.2% in 2023 due to lower energy prices. We assume almost full implementation of planned spending in the liberated territories, which is equivalent to an average of 2.1% of GDP in 2022-2023,” the agency emphasizes.

For 2022, the Azerbaijani government predicts 3.9-per cent GDP growth.

Azerbaijan's GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 5.6%, average annual inflation - 6.7%.