For lasting peace, any Iranian nuclear deal must close door on weapons

In a fresh article, Bloomberg features that as negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme continue, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The international community is looking for a deal that does more than just kick the can down the road. Any new agreement must put an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, not simply delay the inevitable. It’s crucial that any terms ensure the regime cannot renege later and rush toward building a bomb when the clock runs out. The time for a permanent solution is now.

Recent public statements suggest that negotiations toward a new agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program are gaining traction. A senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has indicated that Iran is willing to eliminate its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, limit its nuclear activities to peaceful purposes, and pledge never to pursue nuclear weapons. While these commitments are a necessary starting point, experts argue that a truly effective deal will require more stringent measures.

So far, negotiators have completed four rounds of talks. While this marks a positive step, it also highlights a shift in expectations. The broader "grand bargain" once envisioned—addressing Iran’s missile development and support for terrorism—appears to be off the table. Instead, the focus seems to be on the core issue that shaped the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: ensuring Iran’s uranium enrichment does not cross the threshold into weapons-grade levels.

The challenge, however, is that Iran’s nuclear program has advanced significantly since the original deal. A decade ago, limits on centrifuge numbers and uranium enrichment levels were designed to ensure Iran would need at least a year to produce enough fissile material for a bomb. Today, with thousands of more advanced centrifuges in operation, Iran could potentially produce enough highly enriched uranium in under a week. Even starting from scratch, Iran’s advanced centrifuge arrays could accomplish the task in less than five months.

To ensure that Iran’s nuclear program remains purely civilian, any new agreement must go further than previous deals by mandating the destruction or removal of all advanced centrifuges. Additionally, the number of first-generation centrifuges should be strictly capped to prevent Iran from compensating for the loss in quality with quantity.

Given Iran’s past behavior, stronger assurances are crucial. Iran must fully address the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) unresolved concerns regarding its previous nuclear weapons efforts and agree to rigorous inspections, including by US and European inspectors, to prevent the diversion of materials to undeclared sites.

Moreover, the White House must avoid one of the biggest flaws of the 2015 deal: sunset clauses. Time-limited restrictions would only delay the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran. Any future limits on enrichment must be indefinite or extended far into the future to ensure lasting security.

Iran’s leadership should recognize that these concessions are in their own long-term interest. For any new agreement to be effective, it must gain approval from bipartisan majorities in Congress, which could be challenging even if the deal were more comprehensive. A narrower deal will require even greater guarantees.

The administration’s pursuit of a diplomatic solution is commendable, but it should not settle for an agreement that does not fully address the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

By Naila Huseynova