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Foreign Policy: The energy crisis is global

26 July 2022 10:32

As Russia plays hardball with Europe’s gas supply, the continent is staring down a worrisome energy future—and it’s not alone. For months, sky-high natural gas and oil prices have been wreaking havoc around the world, and experts warn that there is no end in sight as long as the war in Ukraine barrels on, according to the US-based website Foreign Policy

From Ecuador to South Africa, fuel shortages and blackouts have plunged import-dependent countries into economic turmoil, leaving desperate governments scrambling for workaround solutions. In Sri Lanka, which was already buckling under mounting crises, acute shortages and dayslong lines have forced authorities to issue work-from-home orders. Pakistan has resorted to shortening its work week to relieve pressure from lengthy power cuts, while Panama has been rocked by demonstrations over surging prices.

“We are experiencing the first global energy crisis,” said Jason Bordoff, an energy expert at Columbia University, who noted that the crunch has hit almost all of the world’s regions and energy sources. “The ripple effects are being seen globally, and I don’t think we’ve seen the worst of it yet.”

Markets were already tight before Russia invaded Ukraine, the result of a combination of the pandemic, supply chain slowdowns, and climate shocks. That was compounded by curtailed Russian gas exports, which forced Europe to turn elsewhere for its supplies and further drove up prices in the global marketplace. Now, as climate change-fueled extreme heat adds more fuel to the fire, these challenges have only deepened.

“It’s just an interconnected global system,” Bordoff said. “When you put pressure in one place, it is felt somewhere else.”

 The last time the world experienced a disastrous energy crunch—albeit only for oil—it was the 1970s, and OPEC had imposed an embargo that sent shockwaves through the oil industry. That crisis birthed the International Energy Agency (IEA) and pushed industrialized nations to develop strategic reserves in preparation for future supply disruptions, said Antoine Halff, an expert at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. But many emerging market economies and debt-laden countries don’t have this same cushion, leaving them especially exposed to any disturbances.
 
“Today, we have a whole new cast of countries, smaller countries that have been developing rapidly and that have been using more and more energy—and that’s a great sign that reflects their economic development,” Halff said. “But that also made them much more vulnerable to disruption risks, and they’re not part of that safety net of the IEA.”

As European nations shunned Russia’s oil supply, both China and India moved to swallow up its cheaper stock, with Moscow now becoming Beijing’s biggest supplier. But their high consumption doesn’t mean China and India themselves aren’t also facing economic losses as a result of the crunch: Even with Russia’s markdowns, both are paying eye-watering prices for their other energy imports. “There is a financial impact over here that is not fully offset by imports of Russian oil, even if at a deep discount,” said Fernando Ferreira, the director of the Geopolitical Risk Service at the Rapidan Energy Group. 

Those markets could face another shock this coming winter, when a full slate of European measures targeting Russian oil is set to kick in. To mitigate a potential spike in prices, the Biden administration has been scrambling to develop a price cap plan for Russian oil—but many obstacles stand in the way. 

“We could be looking at more disruption in the energy market and higher prices for oil come December, depending on how these sanctions are enforced,” Croft said. 

And experts say the future of the crisis is deeply intertwined with the duration of the Russia-Ukraine war, which shows no signs of stopping. “It’s going to continue as long as this war goes on,” Ferreira said. “We see no indications that we are nearing an off-ramp here in the conflict.”

Caliber.Az
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