Germany’s military comeback: Europe’s new dilemma

In a prescient 1921 warning, French military leader Ferdinand Foch cautioned that Germany, if left unchecked after World War I, could rise again—a prediction tragically fulfilled less than two decades later. Fast-forward a century, and the fear of German military dominance is resurfacing, though in a wholly different context. A recent Foreign Affairs article explores the paradox of a resurgent Germany: the continent’s savior against external threats or the next source of internal tension in Europe.

The article charts Germany’s transformation from a cautious “civilian power” after World War II into a nation rapidly expanding its military capabilities. The Zeitenwende, Germany’s 2022 pledge to take a leading role in European defense, is now a concrete reality: in 2025, Germany overtook all European countries in defense spending, ranking fourth globally, with plans to triple this budget by 2029. Berlin even considers reinstating mandatory conscription to address recruitment shortages. What was once a debate about German weakness has flipped: Europe now wrestles with the challenges of German strength.

The authors emphasize that Germany’s rise could unintentionally reignite old European rivalries. While neighbors like France and Poland have historically feared German power, contemporary unease focuses on potential overreach. France, in particular, remains wary of losing its status as the continent’s primary military authority, while Polish officials worry Berlin might pivot toward appeasement with Russia or marginalize smaller states. Germany’s approach to defense spending—favoring domestic firms, leveraging EU budget loopholes, and resisting joint European programs—could exacerbate these anxieties by creating unequal benefits and undermining collective European defense cohesion.

The article also underscores the political risk posed by Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Currently leading in national polls, the party espouses nationalist, Euroskeptic, and revisionist policies. An AfD-led government could weaponize Germany’s growing military for coercion against neighbors, reduce support for Ukraine, and seek to weaken European integration, potentially fracturing the continent. Such a scenario could provoke counterbalancing coalitions, for instance among France, Poland, and the UK, undermining unity in defense and leaving Europe vulnerable to external powers like Russia and China.

Foreign Affairs proposes a solution grounded in integration: Germany should embrace “golden handcuffs” by embedding its military power into pan-European structures. This could involve joint defense financing via EU eurobonds, deeper collaboration in defense industries, and the creation of multinational military formations. Such measures would ensure Germany’s capabilities reinforce European security collectively rather than becoming a source of mistrust. Deeper integration would also hedge against the AfD’s rise, making it politically difficult for any single party to unilaterally exploit Germany’s military.

Ultimately, the article frames Germany’s rearmament as a double-edged sword. Europe desperately needs Berlin’s strength to confront Russia, yet unchecked power risks reviving historical fears, internal competition, and strategic fragmentation. Restraint, forward-looking policy, and robust integration are essential to turn German military resurgence from a potential hazard into a stabilizing force for Europe’s security.

By Vugar Khalilov