Goldman Sachs warns Brent could stay above $100 per barrel in 2026

Goldman Sachs analysts have warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for another month, the average price of Brent crude could exceed $100 per barrel for all of 2026.

They predict that supply along this key Middle Eastern route could resume on April 11–12, potentially bringing Brent prices down to $82 per barrel in Q3 and $80 in Q4, Caliber.Az reports, citing Bloomberg.

The bank forecasts that if the blockade lasts longer, prices could climb to $120 per barrel in Q3 and $115 in Q4.

Goldman Sachs notes that despite the US-Iran two-week ceasefire, the situation in the Middle East remains unstable, and further tanker restrictions could significantly impact the global oil market.

The war, which lasted roughly five weeks of intense fighting before a temporary two-week ceasefire was agreed upon around April 7–8, 2026, produced significant short- and medium-term effects.

Iran disrupted or effectively choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, causing major supply disruptions.

This led to sharp spikes in oil prices (reaching highs above $100–$119 per barrel in periods), fuel shortages in parts of Asia, and ripple effects on global markets, shipping, fertilisers, and inflation risks.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov