Reuters: OPEC+ set to approve modest oil output hike as UAE exits group

Seven OPEC+ countries are expected to agree in principle to raise their collective oil output targets by around 188,000 barrels per day in June, according to two sources familiar with the matter ahead of a policy meeting scheduled for May 3.

The planned increase would continue the group’s gradual output adjustments, despite growing disruption in global oil flows linked to geopolitical tensions. One of the sources described the move to Reuters as largely symbolic at this stage, citing significant supply disruptions affecting exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

The proposed hike is broadly in line with last month’s increase of 206,000 barrels per day, adjusted for the absence of the United Arab Emirates, which announced earlier this week that it would leave OPEC+ effective May 1. The decision, according to one source, reflects an effort by remaining members to maintain a “business-as-usual” approach.

The seven participating countries—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman—are due to hold an online meeting on May 3. The UAE’s departure means OPEC+ now comprises 21 members, although in recent years only a subset, including the UAE, has taken part in monthly production decisions.

Broader oil market dynamics have been heavily influenced by ongoing conflict involving Iran, which began in late February and has contributed to the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting bottlenecks have affected exports from several major producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, which had previously been among the few OPEC+ members capable of increasing output.

Iran, while remaining an OPEC member, is not part of the seven-country group meeting on May 3. Its exports have also been constrained by a U.S. blockade imposed in April.

According to an OPEC report published last month, total crude output from OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million barrels per day in March, down 7.70 million barrels per day from February. The decline was largely attributed to reduced exports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Russia has also cut production following damage to infrastructure caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.

By Sabina Mammadli