How Iran is withstanding setbacks and external pressure

Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar's recent article in Foreign Affairs paints a dire picture of Iran’s vulnerabilities, suggesting that the Islamic Republic is facing a strategic defeat. With significant setbacks in the Middle East, including the weakening of Tehran’s key allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, the author argues that Iran is under considerable pressure. 

Adding to these challenges is the looming return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, potentially bringing back the "maximum pressure" campaign that hurt Iran’s economy. However, Tehran's response to these mounting challenges suggests a different narrative—one of strategic resilience rather than defeat.

While the U.S. and Israeli perspectives may view Iran as weakened and vulnerable, Tehran sees these setbacks as temporary hurdles rather than signs of defeat. For Iran, the survival of its regional allies like Hamas and Hezbollah, despite heavy losses, represents a form of victory. Hamas, despite its defeat, retains some grassroots support in Palestine, and Hezbollah continues to be backed by Lebanese Shiites. Even the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen have solidified their role in Tehran's axis of resistance. Iran, in this context, sees its regional network as being far from broken.

However, the fall of Assad's regime in Syria was a wake-up call. Despite Iran's strategic backing of the Syrian government, the rapid collapse of Assad’s forces caught Tehran by surprise. This failure has led to concerns within Iran about domestic unrest and the erosion of public trust. The Islamic Republic has responded by making small but significant social reforms, such as relaxing dress code enforcement for women and allowing more open discussions on social media. These changes are not a sign of Iran opening up to the West but a calculated move to consolidate domestic support and shield itself from external pressures.

Tehran’s decision to temporarily pause the controversial veiling law and ease censorship reflects a desire to calm domestic tensions without undermining its core ideological stance. These reforms are largely seen as a way to manage internal stability and prevent widespread protests that could be exploited by external adversaries like the United States.

In dealing with the U.S., Iran’s leadership believes that internal cohesion is crucial. The Iranian government views any confrontation with Washington not as a struggle for regime survival but as a defence of national sovereignty. By carefully managing domestic discontent through incremental reforms, Tehran hopes to strengthen its bargaining position in future negotiations. The goal is to ensure that, when the time comes to engage with the U.S. over its nuclear program, Iran is in a stronger position to resist pressure and avoid concessions that could weaken its regional influence.

Tabaar's assessment of Iran’s situation highlights the complexity of the country's position. While facing external pressure, the Islamic Republic’s leadership is demonstrating a mix of adaptability and strategic patience. Tehran’s focus remains on maintaining its power at home and reinforcing its ideological commitment abroad, ensuring that, despite its setbacks, it will continue to stand firm against external coercion.

By Vugar Khalilov