Is Belarus preparing to invade Ukraine?

As Ukraine focuses on defending the 400 square miles of Russian territory seized in its Kursk offensive, Kyiv is increasingly concerned about a significant military buildup in Belarus.

On August 25, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported that Belarusian armed forces are amassing a considerable number of troops, including Special Operations Forces, along with tanks, artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, air defence systems, and engineering equipment in the Gomel region, close to the Ukrainian border, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

This buildup is being presented as part of military exercises. Notably, former Wagner PMC mercenaries have also been spotted in the area.

Belarus has been a supporter of Russia’s invasion from the outset. It allowed Russian forces to conduct training on its territory before the invasion and provided logistical support during the initial assault. Russian troops used Belarusian territory to launch attacks and cross into Ukraine, with Belarus continuing to support the invasion through reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and medical aid.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has described the role of Belarusian forces as protecting the rear of Russian troops. In March 2023, Russia announced it would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as part of a nuclear sharing agreement and began training Belarusian troops on the Iskander missile systems.

The current military buildup is the most significant since the start of the invasion. Belarus has confirmed the massing of tanks and announced that approximately one-third of its army is being deployed to the Ukrainian border. However, with Belarus’s total land forces numbering around 48,000, only a fraction—about 19,000—are positioned at the border, and fewer than 10,000 are combat-ready.

This buildup appears more aimed at intimidating Ukraine rather than signaling an imminent invasion. Ukrainian forces are currently stretched thin, focusing on their positions in the Kursk region and struggling in the south and east. They are not in a strong position to redeploy forces to counter a potential threat from Belarus.

Ukraine could use missiles and drones to target Belarusian and Russian positions if Belarus actively participates in the conflict. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has warned that all military targets in Belarus would be considered legitimate if Belarus joined the war.

Although the presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus raises concerns about potential nuclear escalation, it is improbable that Belarus would engage in such actions due to the severe consequences and domestic risks involved. Lukashenko is likely to avoid further escalation, prioritizing his regime's stability and survival over deeper involvement in the conflict.

Lukashenko has a history of using bluster to appease Russia while avoiding direct confrontation. His main goal remains to maintain his grip on power, and he is expected to continue leveraging threats without moving beyond mere saber-rattling.