Israeli strike on Hamas leader signals tough response to Hezbollah attack

The recent assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's Political Bureau, has intensified scrutiny on the motivations and timing of the attack.

Preliminary information indicates that Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguards were killed when a rocket struck the house where he was staying in Tehran, Caliber.Az reports citing the foreign media.

The focus will likely shift to Israel, which has pledged to target and punish all Hamas leaders in response to the brutal attacks on October 7, which resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths of Israelis and foreigners.

While Israel typically refrains from commenting on its operations abroad, this attack might resemble a previous Israeli operation, such as the one targeting Iranian air defences near the Natanz nuclear facility on April 19.

Israeli jets are believed to have launched rockets from outside Iranian airspace. As details of the attack continue to emerge, its political ramifications are becoming clearer.

The most immediate concern is the potential setback to fragile ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. While Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader in exile, did not oversee day-to-day operations in Gaza—responsibilities handled by military commander Yahya Sinwar—he played a crucial role in negotiations facilitated by Qatar, the U.S., and Egypt.

American officials had recently indicated that a ceasefire agreement might be imminent, though a meeting in Rome last weekend did not yield a breakthrough.

It is challenging to envision any progress in negotiations following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.

The timing of the attack raises questions: If, as widely assumed, this was an Israeli operation, what were its objectives? Beyond seeking revenge against those affiliated with Hamas, what did Israel hope to accomplish?

Turkey’s foreign ministry has articulated a common regional sentiment, stating, "It has been revealed once again that the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no intention of achieving peace."

The timing of the assassination suggests it was part of Israel's broader strategy of retaliation following the recent Hezbollah rocket attack, which killed 12 Druze children and young people in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27. This response included the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut the previous night.

Israel had warned of a severe response, and officials frequently emphasize that Iran serves as the central hub for the "arc of resistance" in the Middle East, which encompasses Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, and the Houthis in Yemen. After targeting Hezbollah in Beirut and the Houthis in Hodeidah, the killing of the Hamas leader in Iran sends a stark message to militant groups and their Iranian supporters: Israel can and will pursue its adversaries wherever they are.