ISW analysts say Russia to intensify tempo of fighting in Ukraine during winter

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued positional engagements northeast of Kupyansk on December 21, Caliber.Az reports citing the daily assessment of the Russian military campaign by the US think tank  Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that fighting continued in the Kupyansk direction near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, and Stelmakhivka.

Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed nine Russian tanks and 19 armoured vehicles in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions on December 20.

Russian forces recently made a marginal confirmed advance northwest of Kreminna. Geolocated footage published on December 21 indicates that Russian forces recently made a marginal gain east of Yampolivka.

Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements occurred west of Kreminna near Terny and south of Kreminna near Dibrova and Bilohorivka.

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of positions near Bohdanivka (northwest of Bakhmut) and west of Klishchiivka.

Ukrainian and Russian forces stated that fighting occurred on Bakhmut’s northwestern and southwestern flanks near Andriivka, Klishchiivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, and Bohdanivka, and northwest of Horlivka (south of Bakhmut).

Elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division reportedly continue to operate northwest of Bakhmut, and elements of the Russian 58th Spetsnaz Battalion (1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps) reportedly continue to operate near Bakhmut.

Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian forces attacked northwest, east, southeast, and southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, and Nevelske and the Avdiivka Coke Plant.

Elements of the Russian 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR Army Corps) are reportedly operating in the Avdiivka direction.

The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Avdiivka direction stated that there is room for manoeuvre near Avdiivka, unlike in the Zaporizhia direction where there are only narrow cleared corridors through minefields, and that Russian forces are continuing waves of both infantry and mechanized assaults.

Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that fighting occurred near Marinka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda.

Ukrainian forces maintain a presence on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast as of December 21, but there have been no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area.

Ukrainian military observers and Russian milbloggers claimed that positional fighting continued near and in Krynky, with one milblogger claiming that Russian forces advanced towards the centre of the settlement. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces repelled 30 Russian attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from positions on the east bank in the past day.

US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated that the White House assesses that Russian forces will be able to conduct offensive operations more easily when winter weather conditions become more conducive for mechanized manoeuvre warfare (likely in January–February 2024) — an assessment that is consistent with ISW’s observations and assessments about the tempo of fighting in Ukraine during the winter.

Kirby stated on December 20 that Russian forces intend to continue offensive operations, particularly around Avdiivka, and that the White House believes that it will be easier for Russian forces to conduct offensive operations when cold temperatures freeze the ground at the end of January and into February 2024.

The fall mud season has hampered ground manoeuvre for both Ukrainian and Russian forces since 2014, but periods of prolonged freezing temperatures that typically start in late December freeze the ground and allow armoured vehicles to move more easily than in muddy autumn and spring months.

Weather is variable, however, and the upcoming period of the hard freeze may come later in the year — or not at all if it is a mild winter — and presents a shorter window of favourable terrain for mechanized manoeuvre warfare. Russian forces have launched localized offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall–winter season to seize and retain the initiative rather than waiting for the hard freeze.

Russian forces will likely try to sustain or intensify these offensive operations regardless of weather conditions this winter, as Russian forces did in the winter of 2022–2023.