ISW: Kremlin prepares attack on Russia's Belgorod region

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War [ISW] have concluded that the Kremlin is setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely to regain public support for the war in Ukraine.

"Kremlin propagandists have begun hypothesizing that Ukrainian forces seek to invade Belgorod Oblast, and other Russian sources noted that Russian forces need to regain control over Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, to minimize the threat of a Ukrainian attack. These claims have long circulated within the military bloggers' community, which had criticized the Russian military command for abandoning buffer positions in Vovchansk in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast following the Russian withdrawal from the region in September,” Caliber.Az quotes the ISW analysts as saying on November 22.

According to ISW, Russian military bloggers have also intensified their calls for Russia to regain liberated territories in Kharkiv Oblast on November 22, stating that such preemptive measures will stop Ukrainians from carrying out assault operations in the Kupyansk and Vovchansk directions. Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov also published footage showcasing the construction of the Zasechnaya Line fortifications on the Ukraine-Belgorod Oblast border.

The analysts say Russian claims of an imminent Ukrainian attack on Belgorod Oblast are absurd and only aim to scare the general public to support the war, adding that Ukraine has no strategic interest in invading Russia and no ability to do so at such a scale.

“These ridiculous speculations about a fantastical Ukrainian invasion of Russia may also be part of the Kremlin’s effort to acknowledge and appease the Russian pro-war nationalist community,” they stressed.

The ISW experts also noted that Russian military bloggers have repeatedly accused the Kremlin and the Russian Defence Ministry of failing to defend Russia, including the newly annexed territories.

“The Kremlin, however, will unlikely be able to reinvade Kharkiv Oblast as demanded by these nationalist figures.”

They added that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is also using fearmongering about a fictitious Ukrainian invasion threat and the construction of the Zasechnaya Line to solidify his power in Russian border regions and Russia.

Key Takeaways

•    The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast.

•    The Russian military has significantly depleted its arsenal of high-precision missiles but will likely still threaten Ukrainian infrastructure.

•    The Russian military is likely struggling to replenish its arsenal of high-precision weapons systems.

•    The Belarusian prime minister travelled to Iran to discuss economic cooperation and possible security ties.

•    Russian military movements suggest that Russian forces are likely reinforcing positions in eastern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts.

•    Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

•    Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

•    Crimean occupation officials demonstrated heightened unease-likely over Ukrainian strikes on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the peninsula and ongoing military operations on the Kinburn Spit.

•    The Kremlin continues to deflect concerns about mobilization onto the Russian Ministry of Defence.

•    Russian sources continue to tout the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.