ISW: Over 50,000 Russian troops have abandoned their units since start of Ukraine conflict

For nearly three years, the Russian military has been grappling with a staggering number of desertions, with over 50,000 troops abandoning their units, according to a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukrainian hackers recently breached an internal presentation from Russia’s Defence Ministry, uncovering data on the number of criminal cases filed against absent without leave (AWOL) servicemen as of December 15, 2024, Caliber.Az reports referring to ISW's record.

The Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) group Frontelligence Insight analyzed this data and exposed the sheer scale of the phenomenon.

AWOL by the numbers

Between February 2022 and mid-December 2024, a total of 50,554 Russian military personnel were recorded as AWOL. The highest numbers were reported in:

• Southern Military District – 22,577 cases
• Central Military District – 13,769 cases
• Moscow Military District – 7,178 cases
• Leningrad Military District – 3,052 cases
• Eastern Military District – 3,378 cases

The report also highlights that 58.8% of these AWOL cases involve troops from the 51st General Army (formerly the 1st Army Corps of the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic”) and the 3rd Army Corps (formerly the 2nd Army Corps of the “Luhansk People’s Republic”).

A war of attrition... and abandonment

Interestingly, most desertions occurred between 2023 and 2024, suggesting that prolonged combat, heavy casualties, and low morale have taken a toll on Russian forces. In comparison, relatively few cases of AWOL were recorded in 2022, when initial patriotic fervour may have kept troops in line.

Adding another layer to the crisis, the Ukrainian OSINT community notes that some missing soldiers were falsely categorized as AWOL by their own commanders - possibly to avoid acknowledging battlefield losses.

With Russian military discipline fraying and desertion rates soaring, the latest revelations paint a bleak picture of troop morale as the war drags into its third year.

By Tamilla Hasanova