ISW: Russian troops incapable of conducting full-fledged offensive in Kupyansk area

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point to the resumption of offensive operations by Russian troops in the Kupyansk area but deny the possibility of success for the “degraded elements” of Russian forces operating in this direction.

The Ukrainian troops continued counter-offensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced into the western Zaporizhzhia region on October 6, Caliber.Az reports with reference to the next ISW report.

Experts note that Russian troops appear to have recently rotated around Orekhov, demonstrating their ability to hold the line along this critical sector of the front.

In addition, the report says, the occupiers resumed offensive operations near Kupyansk on October 6, and the majority of Russian forces deployed on this section of the front likely remain combat-ready.

The Ukrainian military reported a decrease in the activity of Russian troops near Kupyansk in recent weeks, but on October 6, a representative of the Eastern Group of Ukrainian Forces, Ilya Yevlash, said that Russian troops had resumed hostilities in the Kupyansk-Limansky direction.

Russian “military correspondents” claim that Russian troops have launched an offensive near Sinkovka (8 km northeast of Kupyansk) and that they are intensively shelling the N26 highway (Shevchenkovo-Kupyansk).

One of the “military correspondents” described the renewed offensive of Russian troops on Kupyansk as “large-scale”, and subsequently deleted this message.

The review recalls that the head of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, previously reported that the Russian military deployed elements of the newly created 25th Combined Arms Army in the Kupyansk direction to replace the 41st all-arms army.

Analysts suggest: that the resumption of Russian offensive operations near Kupyansk with the participation of elements of the 25th all-arms army is likely intended to divert the attention of the Ukrainian side from other sectors of the front in southern Ukraine.

However, ISW's preliminary assessment is that the 25th all-arms army was rushed to deploy to its planned December 2023 date and is likely severely understaffed, ill-prepared, or both.

It is also noted that ISW also previously observed the presence of heavily degraded elements of the Western Military District (WMD), in particular the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Combined Arms Army, in the Kupyansk area, and now ISW does not believe that the group consisting of the newly created 25th combined arms army with degraded elements of the WMD, will be capable of conducting full-fledged offensive operations in this area.

Key ISW findings for October 6:

• The defense forces continued counter-offensive operations near Bakhmut and advanced into the western Zaporizhzhia region on 6 October.
• Russian troops appear to have recently rotated a regiment to the Orekhov area, demonstrating their ability to hold the line on this critical sector of the front.
• Russian troops reportedly resumed offensive operations near Kupyansk on October 6, but most Russian troops deployed along that sector of the front likely remain combat-ready.
• The invaders may be expanding military training infrastructure in occupied eastern Ukraine as part of ongoing efforts to improve the training and mobilization capabilities of the Russian military.
• The Kremlin’s constant attempts to remove blame for the crash of Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane and to discredit him led to the fact that in some communities in the information space, they continue to praise Prigozhin and try to protect him.
• Former Russian military commanders who participated in the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reportedly remain in peripheral positions with some influence within the Russian military or defense industrial base.
• On the night of October 5-6, Russian troops launched a strike from Shahed-131/136 drones against port, grain, and border infrastructure in southern Ukraine.
• The Russian troops continued offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Liman line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdeevka-Donetsk line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border zone and in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region, and advanced forward in some areas.
• Russia has reportedly recruited up to several hundred Serbian citizens to fight in Ukraine.