ISW: Ukraine continues to prepare for counteroffensive in near term

Ukrainian officials continue to respond to statements made by unspecified US defence officials on the pace and prospects of the war as it approaches the one-year mark.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on February 20 that Ukraine will continue to defend Bakhmut but "not at any cost". Zelenskyy and Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov also emphasised that Ukrainian troops are continuing to prepare for counteroffensives in the near term. Zelenskyy and Reznikov’s statements are likely direct responses to unspecified US defence officials, who reportedly told the Washington Post on February 14 that the United States is concerned about Ukraine’s ability to defend Bakhmut while also pursuing counteroffensive operations, Caliber.Az reports citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW continues to assess that Ukraine’s decision to defend Bakhmut is a strategically sound effort to pin Russian forces in a discrete area of the front and attrit them, and Zelenskyy likely tempered his administration’s stance on Bakhmut to make a limited rhetorical concession to US officials. It has long been clear that Ukraine would not continue to defend Bakhmut at the risk of seeing large numbers of Ukrainian troops encircled in the city, so Zelenskyy’s comment is not likely a real change in Kyiv’s strategy, the report adds.

Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defence, and Intelligence member Fedir Venislavskyi notably stated on February 19 that Russia has "all combat-ready units on the line of contact in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and partly in Zaporizhzhya Oblast", reaffirming the assessment that Russia does not have a large uncommitted combat ready reserves that can be deployed and change the course of operations.

"These Ukrainian statements are consistent with ISW’s assessment that Ukraine has the capacity to regain the initiative in 2023 with sufficient and timely Western backing," the report adds.

Key Takeaways

US President Joe Biden visited Kyiv on February 20 ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine signalling continued US commitment to supporting Ukraine in its efforts to liberate its territory.

Ukrainian officials continue to respond to statements made by unspecified US defence officials on the pace and prospects of the war as it approaches the one-year mark.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the formal integration of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics’ (DNR/LNR) militias into the Russian Armed Forces on February 19 in response to growing criticism about reported command changes within the proxy units.

The decision to reorganize the DNR and LNR militias amidst an ongoing offensive likely indicates that the Russian MoD does not understand the scale of the challenges of integrating irregular forces into a professional military during intensive combat operations.

The restructuring of proxy militias suggests that the Russian military command is trying to achieve all its desired reforms while the Russian MoD has the favour of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian military command has likely cut off Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s independent access to artillery shells and heavy weaponry as part of the effort to professionalize the Russian conventional forces.

Prigozhin may have misrepresented the devastating impact of the lack of artillery ammunition on Wagner to mask his true frustrations with Wagner’s inability to have and operate its own artillery systems.

Chechen Republic head Kadyrov likely attempted to assuage Prigozhin’s possible anger at Kadyrov’s likely refusal to join Prigozhin’s informational campaign against the Russian MoD.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US government is concerned about China’s possible consideration of sending lethal aid to Russia.

The Russian MoD likely responded to a call for the Russian military to systematically target electrical infrastructure supporting Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPPs) by setting possible informational conditions for strikes aimed at forcing emergency shutdowns at these NPPs.

Russian forces continued ground assaults along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut as well as in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and western Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continue to militarize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces may be struggling to repair air defence systems deployed in Ukraine.

Russian occupation authorities are using an "anti-terrorist" commission to justify seizing and nationalizing assets in occupied Crimea for economic and military benefit.