ISW: Ukraine troops may gain foothold on Kinburn Spit, continue counteroffensive towards Kherson

The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland.

The array of Russian fortifications on and around the Kinburn Spit suggests that Russian forces do not expect to maintain positions on the spit itself if Ukrainian forces launch a counterattack against the spit, Caliber.Az reports, citing the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Russian forces very likely expect Ukrainian forces to take the Kinburn Spit but intend to prevent them from advancing to mainland Kherson Oblast and to defend against an amphibious attack on the land immediately surrounding the spit’s connection to mainland Kherson Oblast,” the report reads.

According to the ISW analysts, the layered lines of defence provide Russian forces with multiple fallback positions if one defensive line happens to fall while the rest remain intact.

Defences near the spit suggest that Russian forces are concerned that Ukrainian forces could establish themselves on or near the spit and use that base to launch a drive from the west against their defensive positions that are otherwise generally oriented to defend against counter-offensive operations from the north, the ISW report adds.

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on November 27:

•    The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian officials are preparing for another wave of covert mobilization starting on December 10 in the Russian Federation and in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.

•    Russian military bloggers widely criticized the Russian Federal Customs Service for customs delays and exclusions of dual-use goods that volunteer movements have been sending to the Russian military.

•    The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian forces along the Svatove-Kreminna line are conducting defensive operations around Kupyansk and offensive operations west of Kreminna.

•    Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations toward Svatove and Kreminna.

•    Russian forces continued offensive operations around Avdiivka. The Ukrainian General Staff did not report that Ukrainian forces repelled any ground attacks around Bakhmut on November 27, suggesting that Russian forces may have advanced in the area.

•    Russian forces conducted strikes against Dnipro City, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia City.

•    Russian occupation officials continued to forcibly transfer Ukrainian children from occupied territories in Luhansk Oblast to Russia under the guise that the children require special medical care.