Russia retains leading role in India’s energy imports Tanker tracking data shows

India’s crude oil imports from Russia rebounded in the first half of October after a three-month decline during July–September, as refineries returned to full capacity to meet festive demand, according to tanker tracking data, cited by India Times.

Imports had dropped from over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to 1.6 million bpd in September, but early October shipments of Urals and other Russian grades increased to roughly 1.8 million bpd, driven by renewed discounts and flexible shipping options, Kpler data shows.

The increase comes ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s October 15 claim that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian crude imports, a statement the Indian Ministry of External Affairs did not confirm.

Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia suggested Trump’s remarks were likely linked to trade negotiations rather than an imminent policy change, noting that Russian oil remains deeply integrated into India’s energy system for economic, contractual, and strategic reasons. Indian refiners also confirmed they have not received government orders to stop Russian oil purchases.

Russia has become India’s top crude supplier since Western sanctions were imposed in response to Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, growing from 1.7% of total imports in 2019–20 to 40% in 2023–24. In early October, Iraq was the second-largest supplier at 1.01 million bpd, followed by Saudi Arabia at 830,000 bpd. The U.S. overtook the UAE as the fourth-largest supplier, with 647,000 bpd versus 394,000 bpd from the UAE.

Despite seasonal dips in July–September linked to refinery maintenance at MRPL, CPCL, and BORL, Russian crude remains economically attractive due to discounts of $3.5–5 per barrel and favourable Gross Product Worth margins.

According to India Times, substituting Russian crude is technically feasible, as Indian refineries can handle diverse grades, but switching rapidly to other suppliers would be costly, logistically challenging, and politically sensitive, potentially raising retail prices and sparking backlash.

By Tamilla Hasanova