New Syrian government consolidates power amid growing tensions with opposition groups-ISW

Abu Mohammed al Jolani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), is making significant efforts to consolidate both political and military control within a post-Assad interim Syrian government.

Since the establishment of the Syrian Salvation Government on December 9, the HTS-led coalition has secured control over critical civil and security services. This has included taking control of Syria's state-run media outlet, SANA, as well as local police forces, enabling HTS to both disseminate and enforce government edicts, Caliber.Az reports citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Additionally, HTS has appointed loyal members to key ministerial positions within the interim government, ensuring its influence in shaping policies and the drafting of a new Syrian constitution.

Jolani’s objective appears to be imposing a fait accompli, where HTS not only leads the Syrian opposition but also exerts significant control over the future of Syria. However, this consolidation of power is far from guaranteed. Other Syrian groups, including the Southern Operations Room and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have not yet agreed to fall under HTS’s authority.

On December 11, leaders of the Southern Operations Room, which now controls much of southwestern Syria, met with Jolani to discuss coordination on military and civil matters. While the meeting was framed as a discussion on cooperation, the leaders did not explicitly endorse HTS’s governance structure, instead emphasizing the importance of a "unified effort."

This lack of commitment from these groups, some of which have previously clashed with HTS and its predecessor Jabhat al-Nusra, indicates potential resistance to Jolani’s vision for Syria’s future. The SDF, for its part, has expressed support for a ceasefire but stopped short of endorsing HTS' government. The SDF’s position could become more entrenched, particularly as Arab factions within the SDF begin to defect to HTS, signaling further fragmentation in the opposition.

HTS’ control may also face internal challenges, as more extremist and sectarian factions within the group could disregard its vows to protect Syria's religious and sectarian minorities. There have been troubling reports of sectarian harassment, including an incident on December 10 where a Christian journalist was questioned about her religious background by an HTS member in Damascus.

Though such incidents remain isolated for now, they raise the possibility of escalating sectarian violence, especially if more extreme elements within HTS push for a broader campaign against religious minorities. CTP-ISW has noted sporadic reports of revenge killings targeting "Alawites" and Assad loyalists, which could destabilize the situation further.

In another development, opposition fighters from the Fateh Mubin group seized a Captagon factory at the Mezzeh Military Airbase on December 11. The fighters claimed to have discovered millions of Captagon pills, raw materials, and production equipment hidden in an Air Force Intelligence building.

Captagon, a highly addictive drug, has been mass-produced by the Assad regime and its Iranian-backed allies for years, generating billions of dollars in revenue through smuggling operations into the Gulf Arab states. While HTS has not publicly committed to halting these drug supply lines, this seizure highlights the ongoing significance of Captagon in the region’s illicit economy.

As the situation in Syria continues to evolve, the actions of HTS and other opposition factions, along with the growing threat of sectarian violence, could significantly impact the stability of any future Syrian government. The international community will need to monitor these developments closely to assess the potential risks to regional and global security.

By Vafa Guliyeva