Politico: Here comes new world order, survey says

Russia’s war in Ukraine is dividing opinion between people in Western nations and those in countries like China, India and Türkiye, a new poll suggests — hinting at a future multipolar world order where Europe and the US are less influential.

The war has laid bare the “sharp geographical divides in global attitudes” on “conceptions of democracy, and the composition of the future international order,” according to a new survey out on February 22 from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Politico reports.

Data collected from nine EU countries, plus the UK, China, India, Türkiye, Russia and the US, suggests that while Western allies have “regained their sense of purpose on the global stage,” the gulf between their perspective and the “rest” has grown wider, the ECFR said.

European and American citizens hold many views in common about major global questions, including that they “should help Ukraine to win,” while citizens in China, India and Türkiye prefer a “quick end to the war” even if Ukraine has to concede territory, based on polling carried out in December 2022 and January 2023.

In Western countries surveyed, large majorities (77 per cent in the UK, 71 per cent in the US and 65 per cent in nine EU members) described Russia as an “adversary” or “rival” of their own country.

On the contrary, large numbers in China (76 per cent), India (77 per cent) and Türkiye (73 per cent) not only see continued “strength” in Russia, and view it as a strategic “ally” and “partner” of their country, but many also believe Kyiv should consider surrendering territory to help end the conflict quicker.

“The paradox of the Ukraine war is that the west is both more united, and less influential in the world, than ever before,” said Mark Leonard, the think tank’s director and a co-author of the report.

There are also different views about the general role the West will play in the future world order. In Europe and the US, many people (29 per cent in Britain, 28 percent in the nine EU countries, and 26 per cent in the US) expect a new bipolar world of two blocs led by the US and China, whereas there were signs that most people in major non-Western countries saw the future in more multipolar terms.

“Western decision-makers should take into account that the consolidation of the West is taking place in an increasingly divided post-Western world; and that emerging powers such as India and Türkiye will act on their own terms and resist being caught in a battle between America and China,” authors of the study said.