Record coal demand in 2025 masks long-term decline, IEA warns

Global coal consumption hit a new record in 2025 but is projected to begin easing by the end of the decade as renewable energy, nuclear power and plentiful natural gas continue to erode coal’s role in electricity generation, the International Energy Agency said on December 17.

Reducing reliance on coal is seen as essential for meeting global climate goals, yet the fuel remains the largest single source of electricity worldwide, Bloomberg reports, citing the agency's estimates.

According to the IEA’s Coal 2025 report, global coal demand is expected to increase by 0.5% this year, reaching an all-time high of 8.85 billion metric tons.

Looking beyond 2025, the agency expects overall demand to level off and then edge down slowly. “Looking ahead, we observe that global coal demand plateaus and will start a very slow and gradual decline through the end of the decade,” Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of Energy Markets and Security, told a press briefing.

The outlook is broadly unchanged from last year, even though coal trends varied significantly across major economies in 2025. In India, coal use declined for only the third time in the past 50 years, as strong monsoon rains boosted hydropower generation and reduced electricity demand. In the United States, coal consumption increased, driven by higher natural gas prices and an executive order signed this year by President Donald Trump aimed at preventing the retirement of coal-fired power plants and supporting increased coal production.

In China, the world’s largest coal consumer, demand was largely flat in 2025 and is expected to fall slightly by 2030 as renewable energy capacity continues to expand. However, the report cautions that faster growth in electricity demand or delays in integrating renewable energy in China could push global coal consumption above current projections.

“China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together, is the main driver of global coal trends,” Sadamori said.

By Tamilla Hasanova