Reuters: Gulf fears US–Iran talks may entrench Tehran’s grip on Hormuz

Gulf states are increasingly concerned that US–Iran negotiations risk consolidating Tehran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz rather than reducing regional tensions, Reuters writes.

The strait, through which about a fifth of global oil supplies pass, has become central to talks expected in Islamabad.

While discussions were initially focused on Iran’s nuclear programme and wider security issues, Gulf sources say attention has shifted towards uranium enrichment limits and Iran’s leverage over the waterway.

That shift, officials warn, could entrench Tehran’s strategic position over global energy flows.

“At the end of the day, Hormuz will be the red line,” one Gulf source close to government circles said. “It wasn’t an issue before. It is now. The goal posts have moved.”

Iranian officials, however, describe the Strait as a long-prepared strategic asset and a key deterrent tool.

“Iran prepared for years for a scenario involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, planning every step,” said a senior Iranian security source. “Today it is one of Iran’s most effective tools -- a form of geographic leverage that serves as a powerful deterrent.”

The source added that the Strait was a “golden, invaluable asset rooted in Iran’s geography -- one the world cannot take away precisely because it flows from Iran’s location.”

A second Iranian source, close to the Revolutionary Guards, said the strategic calculus around Hormuz had shifted, describing it as a sword "drawn from its sheath" that cannot be ignored.

Concerns were further highlighted by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, who wrote on X:

“It’s not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out,” Medvedev said. “But one thing is certain -- Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It is called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible.”

Gulf analysts say the dispute is increasingly about who sets the rules of passage, not just control of the strait.

“What is taking shape today is not a historic settlement,” said Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center, “but a deliberate engineering of sustainable conflict.”

“Who's suffering from missiles and proxies?” she added. "Israel, and specifically the Gulf states. What would be a good deal for us is (addressing) missiles, proxies -- and Hormuz. And it seems they don’t care about the missiles or the proxies.”

While Iran and the US focus on enrichment and sanctions, Gulf states say their security concerns — especially missiles and proxies — are being sidelined.

Analysts warn that a limited deal stabilising Hormuz alone may reduce tensions but leave core risks unresolved.

“The U.S. is part and parcel of regional security...” said Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center. “But that does not mean acting unilaterally — going full-fledged without ⁠involving the region.”

There is also growing frustration in Gulf capitals over exclusion from talks despite bearing the consequences of escalation.

Mohammed Baharoon, director of the Dubai-based B’huth centre, said the region is learning the limits of relying on a single external protector.

Still, Gulf states acknowledge US military power remains decisive, even as they expand their own defences.

The evolving negotiations, Gulf officials argue, risk producing a fragile balance unless regional stakeholders are included.

By Aghakazim Guliyev