ISW: Russia faces uncertainty over Syrian base losses

Russia has ensured the short-term security of its bases in Syria, but has expressed long-term uncertainty regarding their future.

The potential loss of these bases would weaken Russia’s ability to project power in the Mediterranean and hamper its military logistics in Africa. While Russia is preparing to relocate some of its assets from Syria, it has not taken any steps that suggest a full withdrawal from the country is imminent, Caliber.Az informs citing the report of the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russia is likely to turn to Libya to reduce its dependence on or replace the role of its Syrian bases in the Mediterranean and Africa. However, the Kremlin faces political challenges that make its long-term presence in Libya uncertain. Russia's position in Libya is particularly fragile as it depends on the Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, with no formal agreements in place between Russia and Libya.

Major international players, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States, could pose obstacles to Russia's ambitions in Libya. The UAE, as Haftar’s main backer, would likely need to tacitly approve any Russian naval base on Libyan soil. Meanwhile, the United States has sought to strengthen ties with Haftar in recent years, urging him to reduce his links with Russia and specifically warning him against accepting a Russian naval base. 

Russia may look to expand the growing role of Port Sudan in its logistics network and strategic power projection efforts. However, the Kremlin faces significant political risks in Sudan. Since April 2024, Russia has increased its support for the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in exchange for promises to revive a stalled 2017 agreement for a Red Sea naval base that would accommodate up to 300 Russian personnel and four ships. Sudan is currently embroiled in a civil war and lacks a unified government capable of advancing negotiations or providing long-term assurances. 

This instability has already disrupted Russia’s basing plans in the past, as shifting military and transitional governments repeatedly renegotiated the deal, and political changes halted its progress. Additionally, the United States and other international actors are pressuring Sudanese leaders to reject any agreements for a Russian naval base. In fact, US officials had already warned Sudan's military rulers against accepting such a deal in 2022, prior to the outbreak of the civil war in 2023. Russia's inability to strengthen the Assad regime has harmed its global image as a reliable partner, potentially weakening its political relationships with African autocrats and diminishing its economic, military, and political influence on the continent. 

The loss of its bases in Syria would also significantly undermine Russia’s strategic goal of projecting power into the Mediterranean. Furthermore, losing its presence in Syria would disrupt Russia’s Africa Corps rotations and resupply operations in Africa, impacting its broader objectives in the region.

By Naila Huseynova