Russia produces a minimum of three tanks a day for "SVO" purposes

From the vast expanses of the Russian tank manufacturing industry, the battlefield in Ukraine receives a daily supply of up to three tanks. You may wonder, why is that? The intriguing answer lies in the staggering number of tanks destroyed on the battlefield. Astoundingly, this cycle of destruction and replacement maintains an incredibly balanced rhythm, with only a slight tilt toward the fallen Russian tanks. That's why the sanctions don't affect the T-90M tank production.

Let’s delve into some British intelligence data; it has estimated Russia’s losses at 365 tanks from early October to January 25 of this year, reports bulgarianmilitary.com. If you were to count the number of days within this period, as I have, you would arrive at a total of 117 days. By dividing the overall loss by 117, we arrive at an alarming average of 3.2 tanks lost by Russia every single day.

The exact information shared by London is that “Russia can probably generate at least 100 MBTs a month and therefore retains the capacity to replace battlefield losses and continue this level of offensive activity for the foreseeable future”.

Intelligence information

The British Defense Intelligence has stepped forward to clarify the nature of the information they disseminated. As mentioned on the official website of the UK Ministry of Defense, the purpose of the Intelligence’s Twitter communications is to foster a more accurate understanding of the events unfolding in Ukraine.

According to the UK Ministry of Defense, intelligence analyses are systematically constructed. They either provide an explanation for an event that has already occurred [insight] or offer predictive assessments of potential future events [prediction]. Intelligence researchers diligently assemble puzzles with a few missing pieces.

These analysts use a standardized lexicon of probability to ensure clear and consistent communication amongst themselves and with the public. This practice ensures that everyone comprehends the likely precision of their explanations or forecasts.

What does British information mean?

Understandably, neither the UK’s Defense Intelligence nor Ukraine’s intelligence services reveal their military losses. Instead, this information is often disclosed through Russia’s routine briefings that are regularly updated.

Even without data from Russia, it’s reasonable to deduce that Ukraine, with its lack of numerical strength relative to Russia, will consequently suffer fewer losses.

Despite this, the fact that Russia has the capability, both now and in the future, to replenish its lost tanks leaves Ukraine at a disadvantage. This situation occurs regardless of the larger number of Russian tanks destroyed and is mainly due to Ukraine’s insufficient capacity to sustain similar losses. Meanwhile, the West and the USA, while not fully withdrawing their support for Ukraine, are reevaluating the extent of their aid. Business Insider succinctly captures this situation by stating, “The West’s wavering support for Ukraine means Russia has the upper hand.”

War is a “drug” for Russia

Reports from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies [WIIW] suggest that Russia’s economic boom, largely fuelled by its arms sector, is slowing down. The research indicates that the economy is reaching its limit, as demonstrated by notable strains and pressures.

The WIIW, which specializes in the economic climates of Eastern Europe, reported a commendable 3.5 percent expansion for Russia’s economy last year. However, they predict this impressive growth to taper off to a modest 1.5 percent this year due to inflation and a significant rise in key interest rates to 16 percent.

Vasily Astrov, a WIIW Russia specialist, equates Russia’s increasing reliance on war to sustain its economy to a narcotic addiction. He highlights that this dependency imposes a heavy financial toll, accounting for nearly 29 percent of the country’s federal budget this year.

The WIIW also forecasts a decrease in economic growth for Ukraine. Ukraine, already contending with Russia’s aggressive actions, is expected to face a further reduction in its economic growth, falling by 1.2 percentage points to only 3 percent for this year. The institute also voices concerns about the fiscal support Ukraine could receive from the West, as the potential re-election of Donald Trump may introduce further uncertainties.

Ukrainian tanks

For instance, whereas Russia doesn’t encounter issues concerning its tank reserves and their replacement, the situation in Ukraine is significantly more serious and complex. In the early days of January, it emerged that repairing German Leopard tanks was quite a formidable task, mainly due to a shortage of necessary spare parts. Additionally, the process of evacuating a tank from the battlefield, transporting it to a neighboring country for repair, and then returning it back to Ukraine is indeed time-consuming.
German reports suggest that the Ukrainian military is adopting a hands-on approach by trying to undertake the repairs of the damaged Leopards themselves – a reasonable step considering it’s an attempt to cut down repair timelines. However, the repairs conducted by the Ukrainians don’t seem to be reactivating these tanks. According to insights from German experts, the Ukrainian repairs not only fail to restore the operational readiness of the tanks, but they also instigate even more technical issues, requiring additional repair sessions.

Republicans in the US

An unexpected political setback has emerged from Washington regarding their support for Ukraine. In 2022, the consequences extend to prohibiting any repairs to the US weaponry already supplied to Ukraine.

Interestingly, the waves of resistance aren’t confined to Washington. They’ve extended to the heart of Europe, specifically Hungary. Budapest, in an unexpected move, has blocked an intended assistance of $52 billion for Ukraine.