Russia's Air Force struggles despite increased military spending

Al Jazeera unveils that the ongoing war in Ukraine has dramatically reshaped the military landscape, highlighting the potential for a future conflict between Russia and NATO.

The conflict in Ukraine has starkly highlighted the potential for a future clash between Russia and NATO, with tensions reaching levels not seen since the Cold War. Russia is deeply engaged in a war that shows little sign of abating. While Russia has adapted and learned from its rocky start to the invasion, the question remains: has it improved enough to challenge the largest military alliance in history? The war has led to a rapid expansion of Russia’s ground forces, but this increase in numbers has not compensated for ongoing issues such as inadequate training and significant equipment shortages. For Russia, achieving military victory hinges on attrition, using its larger forces to wear down the smaller Ukrainian army. 

Moscow has gradually learned valuable lessons since the war's onset. Low-quality troops are better suited for defense, and effective use of extensive defensive lines in southern Ukraine has mitigated Ukraine's counteroffensive efforts in 2023. The Russian military now recognizes that only well-trained soldiers are viable for offensive operations. Elite units, including marine infantry, airborne troops (VDV), and Spetsnaz special forces, are receiving enhanced equipment, more extensive training, and improved officer development. The size of these units is also significantly increasing; for example, the Marines are expanding from five brigades, totaling around 20,000 soldiers, to five divisions, which will encompass approximately 75,000 soldiers.

Russian military planners are shifting from brigades as the primary unit to divisions, as the high casualty rates have shown that brigades cannot sustain significant losses and remain effective. Larger divisions can absorb these losses and continue fighting until reinforcements arrive. Despite initial beliefs that tanks were becoming obsolete, both Russia and Ukraine have relied heavily on tank forces in their territorial battles. However, losses have been severe on both sides due to the impact of drones, mines, and the lack of effective air support. 

Russian tank losses have been particularly severe, with Kyiv reporting over 8,000 lost since the conflict began. Western estimates indicate that with its economy now focused on war, Russia can produce around 1,500 tanks annually, although many of these are refurbished older models. Despite Russian efforts, the production of newer T-90 tanks has been sluggish, forcing frontline units to rely on tanks that are 40 to 50 years old when crossing open terrain. Economic forecasts suggest this situation is unlikely to change in the near future.

However, some progress has been made. Russia has recognized the crucial role of drones in modern warfare. The integration of these technologies enables Russian forces to detect Ukrainian troop movements and potential attacks much earlier, allowing for real-time adjustments to artillery fire with devastating results. Russian electronic warfare units have effectively jammed Ukrainian tactical communication networks and spoofed their drones, hindering Ukrainian officers' ability to make swift decisions and disrupting their offensive efforts. 

By Naila Huseynova