Russian leader: Ceasefire must reflect realities on ground

Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to discuss a potential ceasefire deal with Donald Trump regarding Ukraine but has ruled out making significant territorial concessions.

He insists that Kyiv must abandon its aspirations to join NATO, according to five sources familiar with Kremlin thinking, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

With Trump returning to the White House as President-elect and pledging to end the conflict swiftly, Russia is currently in a position of strength. Moscow controls a portion of Ukraine roughly the size of Virginia and is advancing at its fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion. In the first detailed account of what President Putin might accept in any deal brokered by Trump, the five current and former Russian officials indicated that the Kremlin could broadly agree to freeze the conflict along the front lines.

There may also be room for negotiation on the specific division of the four eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, according to three of the sources, who all requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information. While Russia claims full sovereignty over these four regions, backed by its nuclear deterrent, its forces on the ground currently control 70-80 per cent of the territory, with about 26,000 square kilometres still held by Ukrainian troops, according to open-source data.

Russia may be open to withdrawing from small areas of territory it controls in the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions, located in the north and south of Ukraine, as stated by two of the officials. This month, Putin stated that any ceasefire agreement should reflect the "realities" on the ground, but he expressed concerns that a temporary truce could allow the West to rearm Ukraine. 

"If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighbourly relations between Russia and Ukraine," Putin said during a Valdai discussion on November 7. "Why? Because this would mean that Ukraine will be constantly used as a tool in the wrong hands and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation." Two sources indicated that outgoing US President Joe Biden's decision to authorize Ukraine to launch American ATACMS missiles deep into Russian territory could complicate and delay any potential settlement. 

This move could also strengthen Moscow's demands, with hardliners pushing for larger territorial gains in Ukraine. Kyiv reportedly used the missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, a development Moscow condemned as a significant escalation. If no ceasefire is reached, the two sources stated that Russia would continue fighting. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reinforced this stance, just hours before the ATACMS strikes were reported: "Putin has already said that freezing the conflict will not work in any way. And the missile authorization is a very dangerous escalation on the part of the United States."

Earlier, President Putin officially signed a decree outlining the key principles of Russia’s updated nuclear deterrence strategy.

The new doctrine marks a significant revision of Moscow’s nuclear policy.

The decree was first proposed by Putin on September 25, and the approved version expands the range of states and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence. The revised doctrine also alters the criteria under which Russia would consider an attack to have occurred, providing the Kremlin with broader justification for a potential nuclear response.

By Naila Huseynova