Russian political analyst: Azerbaijan is independent player, Armenia is not

"It is clear that this statement on the expansion of the EU mission in Armenia and Azerbaijan is aimed at demonstrating its intention and desire to replace the Russian border guards and the Russian military base in Armenia, and the peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh with EU forces, which in reality are NATO forces. There are quite a lot of statements on this topic, not only from the European representatives but also from the representatives of the Armenian leadership. These events are quite probable.

As Caliber.Az reports, Russian political expert, chief researcher of the Caucasus sector of IMEMO RAS Alexander Krylov said in an interview with Armenian media.

"There was a statement that Armenia had frozen its membership in the CSTO, the next step will be to break the military alliance with Russia and withdraw from the CSTO, and then join the coalitions of truly "democratic" states that are now Russia's adversaries. So here they will be promised a lot of guarantees and the most attractive is the prospect of joining the EU, NATO, etc. But then, when the goal is achieved, in case the relations will be hopelessly spoiled with Russia and the Russian military presence on the territory of Armenia and in Karabakh will be liquidated, then Armenia's position will be hung on unpredictable external factors. That is, there are various statements from Europe, including those of France, to which the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry reacted extremely nervously and sharply.

“Azerbaijan is in no way dependent on the position of the EU in its relations with Russia. And the fact that the EU observer mission was deployed, these steps were criticized by the Russian Foreign Ministry because it was not agreed with Azerbaijan. Because here I do not think that Azerbaijan will somehow look at the EU position, and Russia even more so. But the relations between Russia and Azerbaijan will get closer to the extent that it will be in their interests. And the fact that Azerbaijan retains the role of an independent player is, of course, extremely attractive for Russia and allows for developing relations.

“If Armenia now falls into dependence on the EU and NATO, Russia will have prospects of complicating relations here. This is quite obvious. And the fact that Zelenskyy's visit is scheduled for the next few days shows that the Armenian leadership apparently intends to make its geopolitical choice definitively clear," the political analyst said.