South Korea's nuclear option: A nation on the brink

The Economist article delves into the increasingly realistic scenario of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons, driven by rising public support and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly concerning North Korea’s growing arsenal and America’s commitment to defence under a potential Trump administration.

The article traces South Korea's nuclear ambitions back to the 1970s and examines how recent developments have brought the idea from fringe discussions into the mainstream. South Korea’s current administration, led by President Yoon Suk Yeol, has hinted at the possibility of nuclear armament, reflecting the significant shift in public opinion where nearly 70% of South Koreans now support the idea.

The potential re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. President could dramatically alter South Korea's security calculus. Trump’s previous actions, like halting military exercises and threatening to withdraw troops, have already shaken South Korea’s confidence in the American nuclear umbrella. Should he return to power, concerns over U.S. reliability could push South Korea closer to building its own nuclear deterrent. However, the article outlines significant risks associated with this path, including potential economic sanctions, damage to South Korea’s international standing, and the possibility of triggering a regional arms race.

The article further explores the technical feasibility of South Korea’s nuclear ambitions, noting its advanced civil-nuclear industry and missile capabilities. However, it also highlights challenges such as sourcing the necessary materials and the risks of conducting nuclear tests in a densely populated country. The geopolitical ramifications are profound, with potential retaliatory measures from North Korea, China, and Russia. Moreover, South Korea’s decision could influence other nations, like Japan, to consider nuclear armament, undermining global non-proliferation efforts.

Ultimately, The Economist presents a complex picture of South Korea’s nuclear dilemma. While public support and the threat from the North make a compelling case for nuclear armament, the risks and potential consequences suggest that this is far from a straightforward decision. The article underscores that South Korea’s choice will not only define its future but could also have far-reaching implications for regional and global security.