Strategic dilemma: Can EU defend itself without US support in shifting global security landscape?

In a potential future scenario, Europe may face a strategic challenge as Russia and China conduct joint military exercises in the Arctic, signaling their growing military and economic influence.

 By 2030, Russia, having rebuilt its military after a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine war, and China, emboldened by a shift in US priorities under President Trump, could claim control over key territories like Norway's Svalbard archipelago, Caliber.Az reports citing foreign media.

NATO forces may struggle to respond effectively without the full support of the US military, which has traditionally played a central role in NATO's operations. This situation presents European leaders with a dire choice: surrender control or risk escalating to nuclear retaliation.

This scenario is outlined in The Retreat From Strategy, a book by General Lord David Richards and Julian Lindley-French, who argue that Europe faces growing security threats, especially with the prospect of reduced US involvement. NATO's military capabilities, though strengthened since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, rely heavily on US leadership, logistics, and advanced military systems. The absence of US support would leave NATO’s European members, such as the UK and France, with significantly weakened military power.

The idea that the US might reduce its role in European security is increasingly plausible. The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House has raised concerns about the US withdrawing from NATO or significantly scaling back its commitment, pushing European nations to consider greater self-reliance in defense.

Despite promises to boost defence spending, European countries have struggled to meet the required military readiness levels. NATO’s current force plans demand fast deployments, but Europe lacks the military assets and coordination to fulfill them without the US’s logistical support, such as the US’s fleet of C17 cargo planes and F-35 fighter jets.

Additionally, Europe’s fragmented defense industry, with numerous different weapon systems, creates inefficiencies and increases costs. The EU has made efforts to unify its defence procurement, but political barriers remain, especially regarding non-EU defense contractors. Despite increased spending, Europe still lags behind the US in several key areas, including intelligence and technology.

If the US withdraws from NATO, Europe will need to invest significantly in its defence capabilities, including infrastructure, logistics, and joint military projects. However, European leaders face political challenges in boosting military spending amid economic constraints. Some European countries propose financing defense efforts through common bonds, but this faces opposition from others like Germany and the Netherlands. As NATO adapts, it remains unclear whether Europe can achieve true strategic autonomy without the US, especially as the global security landscape shifts.

By Vafa Guliyeva