Transnistria is "unfreezing" - expert Markedonov predicts escalation of conflict

Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO, predicts an escalation of the Transnistrian conflict in Moldova.

Markedonov wrote in social networks that "there are more than enough reasons to worry."

"The fact that the Transnistrian conflict may be unfrozen has been talked about for years. After the status of Crimea changed in 2014 and the confrontation in Donbass began, Transnistria was the focus of special attention. The sharp deterioration of relations between the two guarantor countries of the Dniester settlement, Russia and Ukraine, increased the risks in this "cold hot spot" in the former Soviet Union. But in February 2022, there were more opportunities for escalation here.

On April 25, disturbing news came from Tiraspol. There were explosions in the building of the ministry of state security of the unrecognized republic. Then, representatives of the ministry reported that it had come under grenade fire. There was more than enough cause for concern. Chisinau de facto lost its sovereignty over the territory on the left bank and partially on the right bank of the Dniester, after the Transnistrian armed confrontation ended with the signing of the Agreement on the Principles of a Peaceful Settlement on July 21, 1992. On the right bank, the TMR controls the city of Bender, but the micro-district of Varnitsa which is located within the Bender city limits, is under Moldovan jurisdiction.

However, after the ceasefire document went into effect, Transnistria was unofficially considered the safest place among the post-Soviet conflict regions. There had been attempts not only by Chisinau, but also by Kyiv (the unrecognized TMR has a common border section with Ukraine) to change the economic status quo here. There had been also attempts by Moldovan authorities to appeal to the international community with demands to withdraw Russian peacekeepers and OGFR (Operative Group of Forces of Russia). But no matter what kind of obstacles hinder peace, there were no armed incidents in the Dniester region. There have been attempts to undermine stability, but they ended without shooting. And in this context, the incident in Tiraspol is a very unpleasant thing.

The real negotiation process between the conflicting parties is effectively frozen. There are no attempts to reach compromise agreements. At the same time, the close connection between the Transnistrian conflict and the situation in Ukraine automatically increases the risks in this part of the post-Soviet region.

It is worth noting that just a few hours before the Tiraspol incident, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko stated: "We do not see any risks in Transnistria, our position remains the same: we are in favor of a peaceful settlement of the Transnistrian problem."

At the same time, a few days earlier, Rustam Minnekayev, the acting commander of the troops of the Central Military District, spoke about the harassment of the Russian-speaking population in the Dniester region, and the fact that one of the goals of the second phase of the Russian operation in Ukraine would be to reach Transnistria. There are a lot of emotions and the situation is not easy. It is extremely important at this stage not to allow military escalation to deepen and neutralize security risks. It is obviously too early to talk about a comprehensive political settlement. The main thing is to avoid 'unfreezing' the long-standing conflict," Sergey Markedonov wrote.