Trump administration set to extend Russian oil sanctions waivers

The Trump administration is expected to extend its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil this week, according to several former Treasury and State Department officials, setting the stage for a similar move on Iranian oil, Semafor reports.

Last month, the Treasury Department authorized the sale of previously sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil already in transit through April 11 and April 19, respectively. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the Iranian oil decision as “jiu-jitsu-ing” to minimize economic fallout from the Iran war, projecting that it would increase global supply and lower prices.

Nearly a month later, analysts say the measures have done little to significantly reduce costs beyond temporarily easing market anxiety. A broader pool of buyers for Russian and Iranian oil has allowed both countries to command higher prices, with Russia reportedly earning up to $150 million extra per day, while most Iranian shipments were already en route to China.

“Tinkering with Iranian oil is not a sanctions question at the end of the day; it’s about the market’s general assessment of this conflict’s direction,” said Alex Zerden, a former Treasury official with Capitol Peak Strategies.

Multiple former sanctions officials told Semafor that a Trump administration extension of the Russian oil waiver is anticipated this week, which would likely be followed by an extension of the Iranian oil waiver later this month. Americans currently pay an average of $4 per gallon for gasoline, the highest since 2022, even as talks continue on ending the conflict. 

“It’s hard for me to see a world where the Trump administration cracks down on Russian oil again, at least between now and the midterm elections,” said Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints and a former sanctions official.

Even if Iran temporarily reopens the Strait of Hormuz, extending the waivers could provide the administration with leverage. “I don’t see how they could get around extending the Iranian oil waiver,” said Aydin Akgün, a former Treasury official with Ferrari and Associates.

Supporters argue the waivers function “primarily as a market signal” without reducing pressure, while critics warn that they may set a precedent allowing sanctioned nations to force the US to ease restrictions. “What Russia and Iran showed — really, what Iran showed — is that your options aren’t either to accede to America’s policy demands or face the pressure of sanctions,” Fishman said.

Treasury has not indicated whether it will modify the waivers, which remain revocable at any time during the 30-day period, excluding reporting and payment restrictions. A department spokesperson said it “does not preview actions related to our sanctions.”

By Vafa Guliyeva