Trump’s tariff strategy against China: fentanyl, trade tensions

In a series of escalating trade moves, US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, primarily targeting the fentanyl trade, which he linked to China’s failure to curb illegal exports of the opioid and its precursor chemicals. This decision was part of a broader strategy to address the opioid crisis in the US which has seen a surge in overdose deaths driven by fentanyl.

Initially, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, accusing China of enabling the illicit fentanyl trade. This was followed by a tariff increase to 20% in March, provoking retaliation from Beijing. The back-and-forth led to a temporary trade ceasefire.

On October 30, following a meeting between Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping in South Korea, the US announced it would halve the fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese imports.

Trump hailed the meeting as a success, stating, “I believe he’s going to work very hard to stop the death that’s coming in.”

Acccording to an analysis by Bloomberg, the decision was influenced by China’s recent efforts to tighten control over fentanyl precursor chemicals, specifically two newly classified chemicals: 4-piperidone and 1-boc-4-piperidone. As of July 20, these substances have been subjected to stricter regulations, signaling China’s commitment to curbing the fentanyl trade.

Trump’s initial move to target China was linked to his February 2023 executive order that accused China’s Communist Party of “subsidizing and otherwise incentivizing PRC [People’s Republic of China] chemical companies to export fentanyl and related precursor chemicals.” The order also alleged that China provided a “safe haven” for criminal organizations involved in fentanyl trafficking.

This move wasn’t the first time Trump had raised concerns over China’s commitment to fighting the fentanyl trade. In late 2023, Trump took to social media, asserting that Xi had reneged on a promise from 2018 to impose the death penalty on drug dealers. In response, a Chinese official called for gratitude instead of tariffs, claiming Beijing had made significant strides in tackling fentanyl trafficking.

China has long been identified as the primary source of illicit fentanyl in the US. According to a 2021 report by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, China remains the key origin for fentanyl and its precursor chemicals trafficked into the US.

However, since 2019, the trade dynamics have shifted. Chinese traffickers have increasingly focused on exporting precursor chemicals to Mexican cartels, who then process the raw materials into finished fentanyl for distribution.

Despite previous assurances, China’s cooperation with US authorities in the fentanyl crackdown has been inconsistent. In 2018, China agreed to tighten its regulations on fentanyl production after a meeting between Trump and Xi at the Group of 20 summit.

This commitment led to some high-profile convictions and increased US law enforcement collaboration. However, relations soured over issues like Taiwan and the COVID-19 pandemic, and by August 2022, China officially suspended all law enforcement cooperation with the US on counternarcotics efforts. While cooperation resumed under then-President Joe Biden, it has been limited. As of 2023, China has not notified the US of any fentanyl-related convictions since 2019.

By Sabina Mammadli