Ukraine’s drone front Opinion by CEPA

CEPA has published an article saying drone development is accelerating at enormous speed. It’s a war Ukraine must win. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Fedir Martynov, a 40-year-old former clean energy entrepreneur, had never considered working in defense technology until Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Now, he’s at the leading edge of Ukraine’s efforts to make drones ever more lethal.

Martynov runs the Innovation Hub at TAF Drones, one of Ukraine’s leading First-Person View (FPV) drone manufacturers. While headquartered in Odesa, the company has offices and manufacturing facilities across the country. It’s far from a normal business — the firm’s operations are “nomadic,” meaning it relocates once a quarter to make it harder for the enemy to strike its production facilities.

The hub aims to accelerate the development and integration of new technology into Ukrainian drone systems. “The importance of this work cannot be overstated — it not only fuels innovation but also ensures that our frontline defenders have access to the most advanced tools,” he said.

The company’s work is urgent. With Ukraine’s armed forces on the back foot across much of the 600-mile front line, drones are critical for reconnaissance and to attack Russian forces. Huge swarms of the devices have filled the skies to help Ukraine hold on against the invader, especially during the period when US and European military aid was delayed over the winter. Russian troops say the Ukrainian devices are everywhere, and create a lethal threat.

TAF Drones currently produces 40,000 drones per month and will raise that to 50,000 drones by year’s end.

That is part of a nationwide effort, with resources pouring into the drone campaign. Ukraine has allocated $2bn for production of the devices this year, with a goal of making a million FPV drones this year, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Since the full-scale invasion, over 200 domestic drone companies have been created.

The UK and other Western allies have also supplied aid for drones, while Western companies have flocked to the country hoping to use it as a technology test bed.

This is not just a numbers game. It’s also about quality — the devices now face extensive electronic warfare counter-measures from a Russian military skilled in their use, so it’s critical to find ways to insulate them from interference.

That was underlined in May when Russia attacked the Kharkiv region. Russian jamming was devastatingly effective, as drone feeds from the reconnaissance drones monitoring the entire front vanished.

Russia focuses on shutting down navigation systems reliant on GPS satellite signals for drone navigation (and similarly for missiles and guided artillery munitions using the space network.) If the drone pilot’s signal is cut off, visual guidance fails and with it the drone.

It’s a tit-for-tat game. As one advantage is neutralized, the other side looks for a breakthrough elsewhere. As a result, Ukraine now hopes to use Artificial Intelligence (AI) to counter Russia’s electronic warfare.

Martynov is at the forefront of the work. He explains that to function effectively, the systems need huge amounts of battlefield data to train the models that will navigate the drones. This is the primary constraint being faced by AI-drone developers.

“AI-driven drones will make electronic warfare helpless in the future,” Martynov said, and emphasized the current objective for Ukrainian drone makers was to “make drones fully resistant to electronic warfare.” The race is now to quickly train these models to be able to successfully differentiate objects on the battlefield to improve precision.

This is an extremely difficult project and some US experts, while agreeing technology is viable, have expressed skepticism about just how far the warring sides have progressed.

But the prize is huge. If Ukrainian drones can reach their targets despite jamming, using an onboard computer that has satellite and terrain data, the defenders will be extremely vulnerable. Ukrainian drones have already made huge strides in range, striking targets inside Russia as far as 1,500km (900-plus miles) away.

Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov recently said in an interview that prototypes of AI drones may appear on the battlefield before the year’s end. However, Ukraine has already reportedly used a basic form of AI to strike Russia.

AI drones use sensors to follow a flight plan. The computer model is on a chip and is trained to identify the geography along the way. While still a simple form of AI, Martynov confirms it is already in use on the battlefield. 

Explaining the need for vast amounts of data, he said AI needed: “Footage of how tanks drive, how soldiers move — this data is crucial for improving targeting accuracy.” He added: “This data collection gives Ukraine an edge in building advanced drones, as it is gathered in real-time on the battlefield.”

The initial funding behind TAF Drones initially came from the company’s founders, Oleksandr Yakovenko and Artem Borodatyuk, who were already established business professionals.

“Today, the company has surpassed the breakeven point, allowing us to reinvest profits into developing and integrating promising new technologies,” said Martynov.

There are also profound ethical questions to be answered on drone use. If machines can make decisions about taking human life, what are the rules for their use? And how can the makers be sure the targeted individual is a military threat? The technology will likely require new international rules and probably amendments to international law.

For the moment Ukraine is focused on national survival. There is a growing AI drone arms race on the battlefield and the winner will have significant advantages.

Ukraine has no choice but to press on, no matter the consequences.