UN chief warns Hormuz disruptions threaten global economy, risk recession

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could have severe consequences for the global economy, raising inflation, slowing growth and increasing poverty worldwide.

In a post on X, Guterres said he was deeply concerned about the curtailment of navigational rights and freedoms in the area, warning that disruptions were affecting energy supplies, transport, manufacturing and food markets, effectively “strangling the global economy.” He added that “all of humanity is paying the price," Caliber.Az reports. 

I’m deeply concerned about the curtailment of navigational rights & freedoms in the area of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting energy, transport, manufacturing & food markets & strangling the global economy.

All of humanity is paying the price.

Consider these three scenarios:

1:…

— António Guterres (@antonioguterres) April 30, 2026

The UN chief outlined three possible scenarios depending on how long the disruption continues.

If restrictions are lifted immediately, Guterres said supply chains would still take months to recover, prolonging weaker economic output and higher prices. Under this scenario, global growth would fall from 3.4% to 3.1%, while inflation — which had been declining — would rise from 3.8% to 4.4%.

In a second scenario where disruptions persist through midyear, he projected global growth could drop further to 2.5%, with inflation reaching 5.4%. He warned that such conditions could push 32 million people into poverty, while fertilizer shortages could reduce crop yields, leaving an additional 45 million people facing extreme hunger.

The most severe scenario, in which disruptions continue through the end of the year, would see inflation surge beyond 6% and global growth fall to around 2%, Guterres said. He cautioned that this would result in widespread hardship, particularly among vulnerable populations, and raise the risk of a global recession with far-reaching economic, political and social consequences.

By Sabina Mammadli