Urgent need for US-China military dialogue in South China Sea

According to an article in The Foreign Affairs magazine, a 2001 collision between a U.S. EP-3E surveillance aircraft and a Chinese F-8 fighter jet over the South China Sea underscores the urgent need for Washington and Beijing to engage in serious military-to-military discussions to prevent future conflicts.

The incident occurred on a clear April morning when Chinese pilot Wang Wei's aggressive manoeuvres resulted in a fatal collision, damaging the American plane and forcing it to land on Hainan Island, where the crew was detained.

The crisis was managed diplomatically by U.S. officials, including then-Ambassador Joseph Prueher and Secretary of State Colin Powell, who issued an apology to de-escalate tensions. The 24 American crew members were released after 11 days, but not before destroying sensitive materials on board as best they could. The incident highlighted the precarious nature of U.S.-China military interactions and the potential for miscalculation.

Today, the situation is far more precarious. China's military has grown significantly in strength and capability, with advanced hypersonic missiles and a larger navy than the U.S. Moreover, China has become more assertive in its claims over the South China Sea, bolstered by new laws allowing its coast guard to detain foreign vessels and individuals. The risks of aerial encounters escalating into major incidents have increased, as demonstrated by nearly 300 close encounters between Chinese jets and U.S. or allied aircraft over the past two years.

The dynamics of the Chinese leadership have also shifted. Unlike in 2001, current President Xi Jinping is unlikely to pursue conciliatory negotiations. Xi's assertive stance on national security and territorial claims, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, suggests that a similar incident today could spiral out of control. The regular presence of Chinese aircraft in Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone adds to the risk, as quick decisions by the Taiwanese military could lead to unintended escalations.

The article emphasizes the necessity of proactive dialogue between the U.S. and Chinese militaries. Despite a memorandum of understanding established in 2014 to govern interactions between their forces, both sides have often ignored these rules. The lack of a direct communication hotline between the militaries exacerbates the risk of misunderstandings. If a similar incident were to occur now, it is unlikely that a damaged U.S. aircraft would land in China. Instead, it would likely ditch in the water, leading to a potentially dangerous race between Chinese and U.S. forces to the crash site.

The potential for misinterpretation and escalation is high. China's superior presence in the South China Sea could allow it to control a crash site, turning a rescue mission into a sovereignty issue. This situation could quickly lead to a direct military confrontation.

Some analysts suggest reducing U.S. reconnaissance missions near the Chinese coast, arguing that much of the needed intelligence can now be gathered by satellites. However, this is unlikely due to the U.S. Navy's reluctance to reduce the role of its specialized pilots and aircraft.

Ultimately, the article concludes that with China holding the upper hand in the South China Sea, Washington must urgently push for meaningful military-to-military talks with Beijing to prevent future incidents from escalating into conflict. This proactive approach is essential for maintaining peace and stability in a region fraught with strategic tensions.