US counts on Japan to supplement Ukraine's air defences

Faced with a dangerous shortfall in Ukraine’s air defences and no easy resolution to the funding impasse in Congress, Washington has increasingly leaned on allies to provide urgent weapons support.

Help may now be coming from a partner outside Europe, The Washington Post reports.

Japan is expected this week to formalize a policy change that will enable it to export several dozen Patriot missiles to the United States, a move that would backfill Washington’s stockpiles. That would give Washington flexibility to send more of the sophisticated air defences to Ukraine, which is in desperate need as Kyiv gears up for punishing Russian airstrikes this winter.

The change — a modification in defence export rules — will not explicitly mention the Patriot system but will meet a key request by the Biden administration, said U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing talks.

Japan manufactures missiles for the Patriot, the U.S. military’s premier air defence system, under license from Raytheon.

President Biden raised the issue with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at Camp David in August, during a historic tripartite summit with South Korea, and again at an economic summit in San Francisco last month. Seoul has quietly pledged to provide hundreds of thousands of rounds of artillery ammunition for Ukraine over the past year — more than all European countries combined. A significant amount of that has been provided, officials said.

Japan, concerned that Russia’s invasion could embolden China to take similar action against Taiwan, has been a supporter of Ukraine. It was the first East Asian country to join Western sanctions against Moscow. Kishida, speaking in January as he kicked off the nation’s year as head of the Group of Seven, pointedly noted that “Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow.”

The cabinet is expected to announce the change as early as December 22. The Patriots will not go directly to Ukraine. Rather, Japan is considering sending dozens of missiles to the United States so it can replenish its stocks earmarked for Japan and the Indo-Pacific. Tokyo has not yet furnished a timeline, but a decision on a number is expected “relatively soon,” an official said.

The munitions in question are PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors. The former is designed to destroy some types of ballistic missiles by exploding nearby, and the latter are hit-to-kill munitions that take direct aim at missiles and aircraft and pack a larger explosive punch. The more advanced PAC-3 interceptors run about $4 million apiece, according to analysts.

The move comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a visit to Washington last week, sounded the alarm over his country’s defences. Only a “handful” of munitions remain to protect Kyiv, and he wants more to protect major cities like Odesa, he said at a private gathering of analysts at the Ukrainian Embassy, according to a person familiar with the meeting, which was first reported by Politico.

Ukraine has a patchwork of systems to protect against aerial threats, but they are stressed by the persistent barrage of Russian missiles and drones. Meanwhile, prospects remain dim that Republican lawmakers will approve Biden’s ask for $60 billion in additional security assistance.

With Patriots already in high demand across Eastern Europe, the Israel-Gaza war has further stretched the supply. A wave of aerial attacks on U.S. troops in the Middle East has prompted the Pentagon to deploy air defense troops to the region, including those who operate Patriot batteries.

Ukraine says it has used the Patriot system to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles, including the air-launched Kinzhal. It has scored other significant kills: In May, a Patriot air defence unit shot down three enemy helicopters and two jets still in Russian airspace after they fired into Ukraine.