US gas prices top $4 as Iran conflict ripples through global energy markets

US pump prices have climbed above $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years, as the conflict involving Iran and disruptions to global energy routes intensify pressure on oil markets.

The national average retail price of gasoline crossed the $4 threshold on March 30, according to data from price tracking service GasBuddy, marking a level last seen in August 2022 during the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

The move is widely viewed by analysts as a psychological benchmark for consumers already facing elevated living costs.

The surge has been linked to supply concerns following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil shipments. The escalation has contributed to broader volatility in crude markets, with oil futures rising sharply in recent sessions.

U.S. consumers are beginning to feel the strain. Higher fuel costs are feeding into household budgets, with a poll indicating that a majority of respondents have experienced at least some financial impact from rising gasoline prices. The increase also carries political implications for Donald Trump, as his administration faces scrutiny over energy policy ahead of upcoming electoral cycles.

“Surging fuel prices have started to weigh on U.S. household finances, which were already grappling with rising costs. They have ⁠also become a political headache for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections, as they campaign to hold onto thin majorities in the U.S. Congress.”

Oil benchmarks have also advanced alongside gasoline prices, reflecting tighter expectations on global supply. U.S. crude futures have recently traded above $100 a barrel, underscoring market sensitivity to geopolitical developments and potential disruptions to shipping routes.

Analysts note that the trajectory of prices will depend heavily on whether tensions ease or intensify further. Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said:

"A sudden outbreak of war leads to a spike in US gasoline to $4.00 per gallon. That describes the current Iran conflict - and also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Then, as now, oil prices soared around the world, and emergency oil stockpiles were tapped. But we envision this crisis being ‌shorter: ⁠whereas gas stayed above $4.00 for 23 weeks in 2022, we expect prices starting to cool in the next few weeks."

Despite expectations of a potential easing, near-term risks remain elevated if crude supply disruptions persist or expand. Market participants are also monitoring geopolitical flashpoints that could further affect shipping lanes and production capacity.

“The key issue is ⁠not simply crude oil itself. It is gasoline, the most visible price in the economy for consumers, and when that price jumps, it hits psychology immediately,” Jeremy Siegel, economist at WisdomTree, said in a note.

“That matters, even if the broader economic effect is more balanced than the headlines.”

Policy responses have included temporary regulatory adjustments aimed at easing distribution bottlenecks. However, industry observers suggest such measures are likely to have only limited impact if underlying supply constraints and geopolitical tensions continue to dominate the market outlook.

By Aghakazim Guliyev