US-Israel war with Iran shakes Turkish tourism sector

Türkiye, long celebrated as a premier vacation destination, is feeling the tremors of the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran. The nation had anticipated surpassing 65 million visitors in 2026, aiming for nearly €59 billion, but geopolitical instability has disrupted these projections, DW reports.

Once the fourth most visited country in the world, Türkiye welcomed roughly 64 million tourists in 2025, generating €56 billion (about $64 billion) in revenue. 

Eastern and southeastern Türkiye, in particular, are experiencing a sharp decline in tourism. Historically, Iranian visitors were a major presence, especially during the Nowruz festival marking the vernal equinox. Many would stay in border-region hotels, shop, or visit relatives living in Türkiye.

However, this year the hotels remain largely empty. "Since the start of the war in Iran, travel from neighbouring countries in the east and southeast has come to a complete standstill. It has also ground to a halt in the opposite direction," said Onur Tuncdemir, head of sales and marketing at Ayanis Tour, which has been offering tours to Iran and Iraq since 1997 and primarily to neighbouring Kurdish regions.

Tuncdemir emphasised the immediacy of the impact: "In recent weeks, we've been dealing almost exclusively with cancellations and refunds of deposits." The local economy along the border has already been weakened by anti-regime protests in Iran during late 2025 and early 2026. The coincidence of Nowruz with the end of Ramadan, a traditionally busy period for festivities and travel, has only intensified the downturn.

Despite the disruptions near the Iranian border, popular tourist hubs like Istanbul, Bodrum, and Antalya have remained largely unaffected.

Kaan Kavaloglu, chairman of the Union of Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers and Operators (AKTOB), reassured travellers that "there was no danger to people holidaying in popular Turkish destinations such as Istanbul, Bodrum and Antalya, and that there had not been a huge amount of cancellations so far." He noted that while British tourists were showing caution, visitor numbers from Russia and Germany remained steady.

The ripple effects of the conflict extend beyond Türkiye. Oxford Economics forecasted that "inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11-27% [year to year] in 2026 as a result of the conflict," with Iran at the centre. Given the region's role as a hub for global air travel—Gulf state airports account for 14% of worldwide flights—the disruption could trigger wider travel slowdowns. Analysts, however, remain cautious about precise estimates as the situation continues to evolve.

By Jeyhun Aghazada