US should prioritize Iran negotiations to prevent Israel-Hezbollah war Analysis by Foreign Policy

The Foreign Policy article argues that the U.S. should prioritize negotiating with Iran to prevent a potential war between Israel and Hezbollah, rather than focusing solely on the nuclear deal. Given the limited timeframe before the U.S. elections and the unpredictable future of the nuclear deal under a potential Trump administration, diplomatic efforts on nuclear matters may be constrained.

However, Iran’s newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, known for advocating sanctions relief and dialogue, might offer a valuable opportunity to address the more immediate risk of escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

The article highlights that Pezeshkian's presidency might not lead to drastic changes in Iran’s foreign policy, but his openness to negotiations and the need for economic relief could create a chance for dialogue. The Biden administration, however, has so far been hesitant to engage directly with Tehran, largely due to concerns over Iran's support for various armed groups and geopolitical activities. Despite this, the potential for a devastating regional war, involving a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, necessitates urgent diplomatic intervention.

A large-scale conflict between Hezbollah and Israel could force the U.S. into direct military involvement, particularly given the U.S.’s strategic support for Israel and the potential for conflict spillover into other regions. The article underscores that direct U.S. military engagement could exacerbate the situation, drawing the U.S. into a broader Middle Eastern conflict involving Iran.

Iran and the U.S. both have a vested interest in preventing a full-scale war. Iran’s strategic calculations suggest that while it benefits from a weakened Israel, a major regional conflict would be costly. The potential for significant casualties and the disruption of Hezbollah's long-term capabilities could undermine Iran’s strategic advantages. On the other hand, the U.S. faces the risk of increased military entanglement and regional instability if the conflict escalates.

The article suggests that instead of merely acting as an intermediary or delivering threats, the U.S. should directly negotiate with Iran to address the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Such engagement could help manage the immediate risks and potentially set the stage for more comprehensive nuclear diplomacy in the future. As the situation remains volatile, the U.S. has a critical opportunity to prevent further escalation and improve its diplomatic position by addressing the immediate threat posed by the potential war in Lebanon.