What's happening in Africa after the fall of “Wagner”? WSJ analysis

Following the collapse of the private military company “Wagner,” Russia has significantly lost its influence on the African continent, prompting Washington to explore ways to strengthen its presence in the region.

According to The Wall Street Journal, US intelligence has observed that Russia’s ambitious plans in Africa are failing, two years after the death of the Wagner mercenary leader.

Thus, after the passing of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin established a new military unit – the African Corps. However, unlike its predecessor, this structure has been unable to ensure stability in countries where the mercenaries previously operated, such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

Journalists at WSJ note that, rather than bolstering security as expected, this new unit has failed to replicate the financial and political successes of its predecessor. Military juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, which previously received Moscow’s assistance in combating Al-Qaeda and ISIS insurgents, are now reportedly disappointed.

Moreover, according to a Pentagon source, some countries, notably Mali, have already begun seeking assistance from the United States.

Such assistance is likely to be limited to training local armies, as US law and policy restrict direct military involvement. One plan under consideration involves enlisting third-party countries, such as Morocco, to train African forces in countering extremist groups.

Experts stress that Russia still maintains a presence in the region, particularly in the Sahel – the semi-desert belt spanning Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

However, Russia’s involvement has failed to bring stability: over the past year, nearly 11,000 people have died in the Sahel due to Islamist insurgencies, half of them in direct clashes with militants. Currently, the highest levels of militant activity are reported in Burkina Faso.

In early 2021, the Malian government paid Wagner $10 million per month for assistance in combating insurgents. However, according to the Sentry organisation, Wagner’s operations had already become a fiasco even before the creation of the African Corps.

Analysts estimate that Russia maintains around 5,000 troops in Africa, the majority in Libya and Mali, as well as in Togo, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, and Benin.

In the Central African Republic, approximately 1,500 Wagner mercenaries remain, with President Faustin-Archange Touadéra citing their presence as necessary to maintain security.

By Aghakazim Guliyev