"What's Pashinyan's domestic agenda?" Farhad Mammadov's reflections

Farhad Mammadov, political scientist and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre, commented on the events in Armenia on his Telegram channel.

"Yerevan's official letter on readiness to replace Russian border guards at the airport is the first step, an offer by Yerevan to limit Russia's functionality in Armenia.

In addition to Russia's military and economic presence in Armenia, the representation of pro-Russian forces in the Armenian parliament remains important.

Let us consider what Pashinyan can do in this direction.

Edmond Marukyan's resignation from the post of Ambassador-at-Large of the Armenian Foreign Ministry may have several reasons and is a harbinger of expected changes in Armenia's political landscape.

In Azerbaijan, Marukyan was remembered as having followed a radical line, to which his counterpart in the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, Parvin Mirzazade, responded...

But Marukyan is not a professional diplomat, he is a political figure with whom Pashinyan has longstanding ties. He may have lost the electorate, but he is still clearly pro-Western, and this doubles the interest in his resignation.

The domestic political landscape in Armenia today is an interesting one:

- Pashinyan's parliamentary majority is pro-Western; the parliamentary opposition is represented by supporters of Kocharyan, Sargsyan and the Dashnaks, mostly pro-Russian groups;

- Extra-parliamentary forces are mostly pro-Western. They include Aram Sargsian (Sparapet's brother, 'Respublika' party), the recently emerged Raffi Hovhannisian ('Heritage'), and Arman Babajanian (1in.am media outlet).

Radical Westerners are concentrated in Bever Sefilian, 'Polyus' and the European Party of the epathetic Khzmalyan. Pashinyan uses them as a dog on a leash, which has a reflex to everything Russian...

At the same time, the recent elections to the Council of Elders in Yerevan showed that Pashinyan was able to keep his man in the capital thanks to his coalition with Aram Sargsyan. And the main opponent turned out to be former mayor Hayk Kharatyan. Well, the crazy Bulldog group got the votes to pass the barrier and formalise its representation in the Council of Elders. The main result of the elections in Yerevan is that a third force can compete with Pashinyan's party, and this force fell out of his 'rucksack', not connected with the so-called 'exes'.

One version of Marukyan's resignation is that Pashinyan plans to consolidate the pro-Western extra-parliamentary opposition with which he can unite and replace or dilute the existing pro-Russian parliamentary opposition. Aram Sargsyan and Edmond Marukyan are very convenient candidates for coalition partners. To please Pashinyan, Aram even made himself a new double-breasted suit with patch pockets (!) to lay flowers with Pashinyan on his brother's memorial day.

In order to implement this plan, it is necessary to announce extraordinary parliamentary elections. There is a lot of talk about this in Armenia. The pro-Russian forces are also preparing for this by nominating Kocharyan's son, 'Toyota Levon', as a deputy.

The plan is simple, with an anti-Russian context that will force the West to once again consolidate its resources to support Pashinyan.

But this plan also has risks...

The snap elections will once again strain the domestic political field and provide a legal opportunity for external forces to interfere in the process.

At the same time, the snap elections will slow down the negotiation process with Azerbaijan for at least six months. Incidentally, it is also an opportunity to remove references to Karabakh from the programme of the party and, in the future, of the government!

So the main question is a constitutional referendum or early elections?! Or neither?!

The referendum is about Azerbaijan. The snap elections are about turning away from Russia.

What is Pashinyan's priority?!

The fact that Russian border guards were asked to leave the airport shows that Pashinyan has started to limit Russia's existing functionality in the domestic context by leaving their presence on the conditional Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

Pashinyan has mixed up and confused all the processes..... And this harms the perception of Pashinyan in the negotiation process with Azerbaijan," Farhad Mammadov wrote.