What to know about France's pivotal parliament vote

France’s political landscape has grown increasingly tense since President Emmanuel Macron’s high-stakes decision to call a snap parliamentary election in 2024, which resulted in a fractured parliament. His ruling alliance, already without a majority since his 2022 re-election, saw further losses, while the far-right National Rally emerged as the largest party in the assembly.

Macron’s grip on parliament weakened as France’s debt surged, driven partly by pandemic-era spending and measures to offset the cost-of-living crisis. The country now faces intense pressure to stabilise its finances, with Reuters reporting that the public debt reached 113.9% of GDP and last year’s deficit nearly double the EU’s 3% limit.

François Bayrou, Macron’s fourth prime minister since 2022 and a veteran centre-right politician, declared that “tough decisions were needed” as he pushed for a 2026 budget requiring €44 billion in savings. Proposed measures include pension freezes, healthcare cuts, and the elimination of two public holidays.

The plan triggered a political firestorm. With little chance of passing the budget, Bayrou opted for a confidence vote on his fiscal strategy — a move the opposition called “political suicide.”

The National Assembly is set to convene at 15:00 (GMT+2). Bayrou will open with a speech warning of “the dire state of France’s finances and the need to tackle it.” With victory highly unlikely, the address will likely serve more as a political marker than a genuine appeal for support.

Each of the 10 parliamentary groups will then respond before lawmakers cast paper ballots in an urn. The outcome will depend on an absolute majority of votes cast, rather than total seats. While no official timeline has been released, results are expected between 19:30 and 20:00 (GMT+2).

What happens if Bayrou loses?

As the article recalls, Macron has ruled out calling another snap election if Bayrou falls, meaning he would need to appoint a new prime minister. Potential options include a centre-left figure, after four centre-right picks failed to manage the divided parliament, or a technocrat. “There are no rules governing who Macron must choose, or how quickly,” leaving open the possibility that Bayrou could stay on in a caretaker role.

Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally and hard-left France Unbowed are demanding fresh elections — and even Macron’s resignation. But during a recent lunch with centrist and conservative allies, all parties agreed “a dissolution of parliament would not solve the crisis,” according to a source close to Macron. That same source suggested striking a deal with the Socialists as “one of the only viable options.”

A government insider confirmed that snap elections “did not seem on the cards for now,” adding that Finance Minister Eric Lombard, former Socialist prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, and Court of Auditors chief Pierre Moscovici — also a long-time Socialist — are among the names circulating as potential replacements for Bayrou.

By Nazrin Sadigova