Why national security must prioritise AI and AGI now Preparing for the unpredictable

In a compelling and urgent article, Foreign Affairs underscores a crucial reality for today’s national security leaders: the future is rapidly approaching, and it is powered by artificial intelligence (AI), with the potential arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) promising to reshape global security in ways previously unimaginable. The piece offers a sober reflection on how past crises—from 9/11 to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—caught policymakers off guard, illustrating the perils of reactive strategy in an unpredictable world. It makes a persuasive case that AI represents the next transformative disruption, demanding proactive and innovative planning before the challenges become crises.

The article opens by situating national security decision-makers as often being reactive rather than proactive actors, swept up by events and forces beyond their control. It recalls how the Bush administration’s intent to reduce America’s global footprint was abruptly reversed by 9/11, how Obama was forced back into Middle Eastern entanglements by Arab revolutions, and how Biden’s hopes for stable US-Russia relations evaporated with the war in Ukraine. These examples set the stage for AI’s looming disruption—one with potentially even greater consequences for global order.

At the heart of the discussion is the uncertainty and unprecedented nature of AI’s trajectory. Unlike past technological revolutions, the emergence of AGI is shrouded in ambiguity, lacking a shared definition or clear timeline. Yet, the rapid acceleration of AI capabilities—from ChatGPT’s launch in 2022 to near-peer technological competition between the US and China—signals a strategic imperative to prepare now. The article points out the stark contrast with the nuclear era, where U.S. planners had decades and government control over technology, while today, a handful of private companies and near-peer rivals are driving development in a rapidly diffusing technology.

One of the most compelling sections highlights potential “black swan” scenarios: What if a U.S. company claims to have achieved AGI and asks to be treated as a national security asset? What if China beats the U.S. to the breakthrough? How do policymakers balance the risks of geopolitical escalation against the need for cooperation to prevent global catastrophes like AI-enabled bioweapons? The article rightly stresses the importance of robust, independent analysis to navigate such dilemmas and the need for dynamic public-private partnerships and international coalitions to mitigate risks and promote accountability.

The piece further explores the novel security challenges posed by AGI, such as AI-enabled cyberattacks that could paralyse critical infrastructure, complicate attribution of responsibility, and accelerate conflict escalation. The traditional playbook for cyber defence is deemed insufficient against autonomous, deceptive AI agents, urging policymakers to rethink incident response, legal frameworks, and international cooperation channels. The call for “no regret” preparatory actions, flexible emergency protocols, and investment in multi-scenario capabilities reflects a pragmatic, multi-layered approach to national security in the AI era.

Crucially, the article warns against complacency or treating AI as a “normal technology” with predictable adoption curves. Instead, it advocates for strategic humility—acknowledging that AI’s impact will span far beyond traditional national security agencies, involving private sector actors and civil society worldwide. AGI’s global diffusion demands that U.S. planners think beyond bilateral competition and engage with a multipolar world where technology ecosystems are diverse and power distributed.

In conclusion, the Foreign Affairs article makes a compelling case that preparing for AI and AGI is not sci-fi fantasy but an urgent, practical necessity for national security leaders. The lessons of past crises remind us that waiting until disruption occurs is costly, and in the rapidly evolving AI landscape, there may be no second chance. By proactively strategising, fostering partnerships, and embracing flexible policy frameworks, the U.S. can better navigate the uncertain road ahead—shaping a future where technological progress enhances security rather than imperils it.

By Vugar Khalilov