With Europe's help, big guns keep firing in Ukraine despite US slowdown

While the world’s attention often shifts to explosive drones and high-tech warfare, Ukraine's artillery continues to be the unsung hero of its defence against Russia. 

Forbes reveals in a fresh article that Ukraine’s ability to maintain its powerful artillery was bolstered by substantial US donations of shells and weapons during the administration of President Joe Biden. However, under current President Donald Trump, the suspension of this aid has raised concerns among Ukraine's supporters.

"Ukraine needs lots and lots of 155-millimeter shells," said Michael Shurkin, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. The looming question is whether Ukraine can continue to maintain its artillery capabilities as the US shifts its stance under Trump, aligning more with Russia and halting further military assistance.

Fortunately, Ukraine is finding alternative routes to maintain its artillery operations. Efforts from the Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, and other European nations are helping ensure that Ukraine's 155-millimeter howitzers keep firing, despite decreasing supplies of US shells.

Since February 2022, Ukraine has received nearly 900 155-millimeter howitzers and millions of shells, allowing its artillery units to launch 100-pound shells over 15 miles. While Ukraine has lost about 200 of these guns to Russian fire, they are being replaced with domestically produced wheeled howitzers, adding around 20 new units per month. Ukrainian artillery is now firing over 5,000 155-millimeter shells daily, totaling around 2 million annually. Though this is fewer than Russia’s artillery output, it’s still enough to inflict heavy casualties and losses on Russian forces.

Under President Biden, the US contributed over 3 million 155-millimeter shells, many from the US Army’s main shell factory in Pennsylvania, which has significantly increased its output. The factory is now targeting 100,000 rounds per month, up from 14,000 per month at the start of the war.

However, with the Trump administration’s changing policies, especially in light of his push to leverage Ukraine’s resources and a controversial press conference where Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US munitions shipments have slowed drastically. The White House has warned that they might halt shipments altogether.

As Zelenskyy left the White House visibly shaken, European allies voiced their continued support. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reaffirmed, “Ukraine can rely on Germany—and on Europe.” This sentiment is especially strong as Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz, following his party’s recent electoral victory, prepares to lead Germany toward "strategic independence" from an increasingly autocratic United States.

Germany has already provided Ukraine with nearly half a million 155-millimeter shells and is increasing domestic production to sustain supplies through 2025. More significantly, German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has partnered with a Ukrainian firm to build a new shell production plant in Ukraine, expected to produce hundreds of thousands of rounds annually starting next year.

The Ukrainian factory, supported by Norway, is already producing 155-millimeter shells, though at a slower rate. For the next few years, Ukraine will continue to rely on imported artillery ammo. The Czech and Estonian initiatives are crucial in sourcing shells globally, including from factories in India and South Africa. South Korea, a major producer, has also sold large quantities to the US for onward transfer to Ukraine.

In 2022, the Czech initiative delivered 1.5 million shells and plans to continue unless political shifts occur. The Estonian initiative, still in its early stages, aims to send 1 million shells within the next year.

While logistical challenges remain, the crucial takeaway is that Ukraine and its allies have established reliable and redundant supply chains for artillery and ammunition.

Even if the US completely withdraws from providing aid, Ukraine’s artillery will continue to fire in the foreseeable future.

By Naila Huseynova